What If Bobby Kennedy Had Lived? 1 of 2

Some people believe that had Senator Robert F. Kennedy not been assassinated in early June 1968, he was certain to have made it to the White House that year. Some are convinced Senator Kennedy's victory over Senator Eugene McCarthy in the Democratic Party's California primary guaranteed RFK his party's presidential nomination. However both of these simply are not so.

The truth is there were no such certainties or guarantees.

One week after Bobby Kennedy's May 28th defeat in the Oregon primary election, his winning both the California and South Dakota primaries on June 4th was unquestionably a boon to his presidential campaign. In fact, winning the California contest was absolutely essential in keeping Senator Kennedy's candidacy alive. But it could do no more than that. Such a victory alone could not ensure Kennedy the Democratic nomination in late August. Had he not been killed on the night of his California primary victory, RFK still would have had a very difficult uphill battle ahead of him in that summer of 1968.

Even with his California primary triumph, Kennedy would not have been the front-runner for his party's presidential nomination had he left Los Angeles alive. The party's front-runner still would have been Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey. Humphrey, who had entered the presidential competition on April 27th (nearly four weeks after President Lyndon B. Johnson's withdrawal from the race), had obtained by early June many more delegate commitments than Kennedy had achieved. This was due to HHH and his senior aides negotiating with -- and securing commitments from -- party leaders in back rooms, entirely outside the official primary election process. Humphrey was the leading Democrat in the race even though he was not on the California primary ballot and also was not on the ballots of any of the other primary states. By June 4th, Humphrey had received so many delegate commitments, working outside the primary process, that the Vice President already seemed poised to capture the Democratic presidential nomination, which was set to be awarded in Chicago 2 1/2 months later.

Not that it would have been completely impossible for Bobby Kennedy to have defeated Humphrey for the nomination, but it certainly would have been very difficult as reporters, analysts and even RFK himself observed on more than one occasion during that fateful evening of June 4-5, 1968. The New York Senator would have had the very difficult challenge of trying to convince a sufficient number of already-pledged Humphrey delegates to abandon their commitment to the Vice President. As Robert Kennedy finally said that night immediately after delivering his victory statement in Los Angeles -- in his last recorded words, uttered to radio reporter Andrew West only about a minute before he was fatally shot at the Ambassador Hotel -- he would have to "struggle for it" that summer if there was any chance of his beating Humphrey at the party's August convention in Chicago.

So Senator Kennedy, despite scoring what was perhaps the greatest victory of his political career (beating Gene McCarthy in the California presidential primary), still was not guaranteed the Democratic nomination. Not only was he not a shoe-in for that, he was not even his party's front-runner despite having won four out of five primaries, including California, since entering the race on March 16th. We simply will never know whether RFK eventually would have managed to succeed in this arduous quest had he not been murdered moments after claiming victory in the California primary. He might have succeeded. He might not have. This will always be impossible to know for sure.

Television network news coverage of Bobby Kennedy's final primary victory makes this unmistakably clear. Now you can see and hear all of this for yourself, right here, in this video of selected clips from CBS, ABC and NBC live TV network news coverage of the California primary on the night of RFK's assassination, June 4-5, 1968. The following are the newsmen featured in this video (in order of when we first see or first hear each speak): CBS's Walter Cronkite, CBS's Martin Agronsky, ABC's Bill Lawrence, NBC's Frank McGee, CBS's Bill Plante, ABC's Howard K. Smith, CBS's Roger Mudd, NBC's Sander Vanocur, CBS's Joseph Benti, ABC's Dan Hackel and KRKD/Mutual's Andrew West.

You might take particular note in this video of RFK's own carefully-chosen words, uttered during his last TV network interviews, as well as Kennedy's final recorded words captured by TV cameras and microphones as RFK chatted briefly with local Los Angeles radio reporter Andy West at the lectern in the Ambassador Hotel's Embassy Room ballroom, immediately following the Senator's victory speech and one minute before he was shot in the hotel's kitchen pantry shortly after departing the ballroom.

Also see our "What If Bobby Kennedy Had Lived? 2 of 2".

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[Nominay]

The one thing I disagree with how this video is presented is the idea that Humphrey would've walked away with a landslide to the nomination. It would've been close, though I still give Humphrey a 60% over 40% to Kennedy over a hypothetical had he lived scenario. It's hard to know for sure how much in favor things would've gone or not gone for RFK. Minutes before his victory speech, he told Dick Goodwin to tell McCarthy that "if he withdraws and supports me now, I'll make him Secretary of State."

[historymythbusters]

@Nominay At no time do we say that Humphrey was poised on the night of June 4-5, 1968 to walk away with a landslide victory in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1968. We do not say that he was guaranteed to win the nomination at that time. We merely make the point that RFK himself was not guaranteed the nomination by winning the California primary. We don't know what would have happened had Senator Kennedy not been killed. And we never will know.

[Nominay]

@historymythbusters First of all, thanks for putting this incredible video together. I know not how you managed to collect all this footage and succinctly edit it. 2nd, I just feel it was premature to conclude then and now that Humphrey was poised to win. Sure, he had a clear pathway to the nomination - he was the frontrunner - but he was still hundreds of delegates away, and the one thing I see no one here talking about was the possibility of McCarthy releasing all of his delegates to Kennedy.

[historymythbusters]

@Nominay RFK himself makes clear in this video he needed McCarthy support. What we're saying here is that as of the night of June 4-5, 1968, it APPEARED Humphrey was poised to win the Democratic presidential nomination. It's a simple fact that HHH "appeared" to be poised for such a win. But we're also saying it would not have been completely impossible for RFK to have defeated HHH for the nomination. That would have been a difficult struggle for Kennedy but not impossible. Can we be any clearer?

[historymythbusters]

@historymythbusters Of course it was within the realm of possibility that RFK might have gained McCarthy support had he not been killed. Kennedy himself regarded this as a requirement if he was going to beat Humphrey (he makes this clear in the video). So the McCarthy factor is not being ignored. The bottom line here is we are simply making two key points: (1) RFK was not guaranteed the nomination by virtue of his California primary victory and (2) we will never know what would have happened.

[KennBurch]

@jasmcc1 not necessarily. He'd have found it far harder to make a case that he really represented the will of the party if he'd been up against a candidate who'd demonstrated massive support in the primaries. And Humphrey would have been far likelier to follow his true instincts and publicly break with the war before the convention, since he could still have been nominated with the combined support of his personal loyalists added to Kennedy and McCarthy's delegates.

[KennBurch]

I don't think people are still arguing that Bobby would have had the nomination locked up had he lived. What most would say is that:

a)even with his lead in delegates, it would have been far more difficult for Humphrey to present himself as a credible nominee, and might well have withdrawn from the race, especially if his poll ratings against Nixon had been lower than Kennedy's(as they could well have been)

b)If Humphrey HAD still been nominated, he'd have likely broken with the war early.

[ezrabglaw]

Bah! These primaries are all about momentum, and the California primary victory was massive. Kennedy had the momentum, only lost one state since entering, and would have pealed off both McCarthy supporters AND delegates committed to Humphrey. He had it, and would have been the next President of the United States. History would have been different, and there would have been no Nixon presidency.

[EricandDish]

I was shocked when I found out recently that Walter Cronkite was involved in a secret society (Bohemian Grove). Shocked because I thought he was supposed to be "The Most Trusted Man in America". Now I wonder if my past respect for him has waned. But back to this RFK issue: I read one person here wrote that had Kennedy lived, he would of still lost to Humphrey in Chicago-but Triple H would of made him his vice-president (if that's true, why didn't he choose McCarthey instead of Muskie?).

[UncleMikeNJ]

Wasn't New York's presidential primary yet to come? If Bobby had won that, it would have all been up for grabs. Perhaps Mayor Daley Sr. could have done something at the convention to throw it to Bobby. Daley was pissed at the demonstrators, but he didn't exactly like the war. An RFK-Daley alliance might've outflanked the LBJ-HHH-forged delegates.

If Bobby had lost the nomination but still lived, I'll guarantee you enough voters would've come out to throw HHH enough States to beat Nixon.

[Trudeau7900]

There were only seven Democratic primaries in 1968, if I recall. That does not seem to me to be adequate for challenging the institutional support Humphrey had been putting together. But as so many other things showed us that year, never underestimate what the outside world can do to institutional function and institutional thinking.

[curtisgeorge2011]

Someone sure as hell thought he was going to be a shoe in otherwise they wouldn't have assassinated him so promptly. He would've been president there is absolutely no doubt.

[jasmcc1]

humphrey still would have got nomination no matter what

[1stTrillionaire]

No one knows the answer 2 that question.

[1stTrillionaire]

Uh the real question should be "what if JFK had lived?"