Re: The Monty Hall Paradox
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Uploader Comments (websnarf)
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Yet, the chance that you picked a car originally (and would win by staying) is only 1/3. The chance that you picked a goat originally (and consequently would win by switching) is 2/3. SWITCH!
4 years ago 7
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It's right, websnarf isn't breaking any rules of statistics. When you pick a door you are forcing the host to give you more information about the system, assuming he knows where the car is. Then the chance to get the car is 2/3 when player switches.
The chance is 1/2 if the host is clueless about where the car is and happens to open a goat door.
Whether the host knows where the car is or not is very much relevant.
2 years ago 3
All Comments (60)
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Ok i understand! This is pretty cool thanks!
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Great vid. Very easy to understand. Thanks for this.
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I have a dagree in math. (did crypto work for a while) .. this prob was given in a class of mine. I found that the best and shortest way was to do this. whats importent? well we know each door is 1/3. and then the switch question. there are 2 ends to this. you switch or you don't, but the question makes 2 sets the door you origonally picked and the ones you have left. if you don't swich it was like the question was never asked. but if you do then the question changes your game.
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hahahah I DID just paused the video to see if anyone had commented on that
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For all of you who fail to understand this, I do not blame you; However, think of it in this perspective:
You are on a game show, hosted by an MC, in which there are 100 doors to choose from. Behind 1 door is a car, behind the rest are goats. The MC says that once you pick your door, he will eliminate all wrong doors but one. Because the MC had 99 doors to begin with, there is a 99% chance that the remaining door is the car. Therefore, there is a 99% chance of winning if you switch to his.
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they had to dress up in weird costumes because it made it more likely to get picked to participate in the show, not for some strange reason.
this is an interesting discussion and i like your looking at the monty hall long term strategy. it's been so long since i watched the show i forgot what he actually does.
there is also no state information or replays for the contestant, the constestant gets one chance.
framing the question, and making the actions predictable make a difference.
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Thanks for the video, you re a gifted educator.
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no mather what your name or alledged I.q. is , it's wrong. you break all rules of statistic. pre-test and post test recalculation of probabilities enters altering events and not solutions, that circles it. it's amazing how such illusion can crack people's minds so much. best pre and post test or "event" probabilitie calculation e.g would be a couple of coin trous. 2 equal at start would be 0.25. 1 equal afterthe first would be 0.5. the "head or tails" result is irrelevant (always0.5) get it???
giovea 3 years ago
What do you think my name or IQ is? (Allegedly or otherwise?)
This video is very old and I am not in the mood to revisit this. Please read the other comments, watch the video replies and look this up on Wikipedia. All are sound and explain the problem sufficiently.
websnarf 3 years ago
in the second example you wouldn't care if Monty was selectively opening doors or randomly opening doors because choosing to switch 100% of the time would still yield 2/3 probability, equally as high as adopting a strategy that took Monty's selection into account.
seanmft 3 years ago
Yes but its not the *only* strategy to achieve a 2/3 outcome. Marilyn Vos Savant omits this consideration, and if you watch the rest of my video a the response video by Prepoceros you will see that its probably something that you would want to take into account in the real world.
websnarf 3 years ago
The idea here is basically how devious is Monty? For instance, if the only time Monty offered a swap was when you were right, you should never swap.
jdohe 3 years ago
Yes, but if the contestant knows that Monty *might* not present him with a choice, she can be defensive and simply never switch; guaranteeing a 1/3 big prize pay out. So Monty can never reduce the payout to below that.
websnarf 3 years ago