Football

David Spiegelhalter talks about uncertainty in major league football. How much is a team's league position due to luck and how much is due to skill? Further reading at http://understandinguncertainty.org/node/440 and http://understandinguncertainty.org/node/248.

Category:

Sports

Tags:

• football
• league
• soccer
• chance
• uncertainty

[okmasko]

i dont understand what those bottom columns represent. Can anyone explain to me, please? :)

[undunc]

The horizontal axis is the number of points scored, and the bottom columns give you the number of teams that have scored that many points. It's a histogram really. As the season progresses, the horizontal azis gets rescaled and recentred to keep everything in the picture. Hope that helps!

Mike

[JOZZIE52]

nice video

though you really need a short throw projector so your not standing in the path of the light all the time. With the sport throw you will still not be able to see whats behind you but atleast the image isnt over you all the time

[undunc]

Neat idea - thanks! We'd wondered about green screen but short throw might be easier. For now, David's OK about the fact that he merges in with the image and we have quite a bit of footage shot like this to edit and upload yet.

Mike

[singingbanana]

I've just got round to watching this one. This is great because I didn't know what the answer was going to be (skill v chance) - and I'm so used to probability talks debunking skill as chance. And the point at the end was nice too, that other leagues are more evenly matched. Oh, and I have no interest in football :)

[okmasko]

thanks a lot :)

[JOZZIE52]

yeah the problem with a green screen is that David wont be able to see what exactly is there and chroma key is hard to get working all the time where as for things like this short throw is the easiest and looks the most professional

[xeonidas]

I got alot smarter thank you