Entrevista Nassim Taleb (2/2)

Entrevista Nassim Taleb (2)
Segunda parte de la entrevista de Charlie Rose a Nassim Taleb. Incluye subtitulos en castellano. Transcripción completa en:
http://babalum.com/2008/08/21/video-entrevista-con-nassim-taleb

Me ha costado entender algún pasaje, se admiten sugerencias y correcciones en los subtitulos.

Category:

Science & Technology

Tags:

• Nassim
• Taleb
• Black
• Swan
• Cisne
• Negro
• probabilidad
• aleatoriedad

[KTALOGO]

¿Tienes mas material de este autor?, es muy intereseante. Gracias.

[blogbabalum]

@KTALOGO En mi Blog de Babalum encontrarás más material.

[blogbabalum]

Hi Reza

I fully agree with you!

Babalum

[neb967]

this is a really bad interview by Charlie Rose I think... he doesnt really get to the core of what Taleb's book is even about to be honest...

[babalum2]

I guess that what Nassim intends to say is not that past was predictable, rather that nowadays the world is more complex due to its interdependencies that can lead more often to black swans with a much higher impact.

Babalum

[IlGiglioNero]

I agree with him on everything but one. I think the world has always been unpredictable. In the past as well as today. I do not think todays is less predictable, it was and is unpredictable.

[2007reza]

I now agree with your view. Cheers.

[baldassare01]

"he merely criticises and has not produced a pragmatic alternative or anything near"... which i believe is the challenge to finance experts and economists, ie, to produce that pragmatic alternative. but i think the real challenge is for them (experts) to stop exploiting other people's ignorance by preaching matters as "truths", posing that they (experts) know better (which Taleb argues that they really don't) and so enjoin society to follow them down their road which they paved themselves.

[2007reza]

I know this is not about black swans and what he means. I have red his books. His argument is about statistical modelling of rare events and now tries to expand it. Although he has a valid point in demonstrating difficulties in predicting rare events, but he merely criticises and has not produced a pragmatic alternative or anything near. overall since not all elements of systems and consequently thier cause and effects are identified as enthropy increases risk measures are bound to failure.

[baldassare01]

what i suppose this means is that even whilst we create our models for predicting the outcomes, we should not be lulled into taking them as "truths" or infallible tools that one goso far to the extent of preaching that dogma to others. this is not about the black swans per se, but is about human nature's preference for matters to be presented as white swans, and our tendency to exclude the idea of black swans being possible.