Economic Predictions for 2008

http://investing.meetup.com/21 - New York Investing meetup organizer Daryl Montgomery predicts inflation and recession in 2008. Also the credit crisis spreading to credit cards, car loans, and student loans; real estate problems moving to commercial real estate; and more bank bailouts with the assistance of the U.S. government. Material presented at the Dec 12, 2007 meeting. For more on this topic, please read our blog, "The Helicopter Economics Investing Guide", at: http://nyinvestingmeetup.blogspot.com.

Category:

News & Politics

Tags:

• 2008
• Forecasts
• Economy
• Recession
• Inflation
• Dollar
• Real
• Estate
• Credit
• Crisis
• Bailout
• Federal
• Reserve
• Currency
• Decline

[Corelian66]

Thank you for your information.

If the Fed rises rates. Do you think that the dollar will continue to fall any way?

Thank you

[NYInvestingMeetup]

There is a good possibility that the Fed will raise rates after the election (they will try not to do it before). This will temporarily make the U.S. dollar go up, but not in the long-term. The Funds rates is not responsible for all or probably even most of the liquidity the Fed is pumping into the financial system. The TAF, TSLF and PDCF are being used to pump 100's of billions of extra liquidity. This is just as inflationary.

[skanicum]

As I read the posts added to your site I see one from 2 months ago that said you were wrong and that prices are dropping, he quoted oil at that time being $86 per and now it is $109, gold was $902 and now it is $932, it looks like it is falling in the wrong direction,UP!!! keep up the good work.

[NYInvestingMeetup]

Thanks for your support. There are a lot of famous economists and blogsters that think we are facing an immediate deflationary threat (the Fed itself also believes this), even though prices continue to go up. They base their views on the idea that credit creation is the key to consumer price inflation, instead of the value of the currency, which we believe. Our investing ideas are generated from this concept. You could easily be 50% above buy and hold in the last 6 months if you listened to us.

[UnhealthySalad]

Damn, all but one of your predictions (currency intervention) have already happened and it's barely been 3 months. I wonder how much worse it can get.

[NYInvestingMeetup]

Thanks for your review. Wait till end of the year for currency intervention. It is most likely after the election. Unfortunately, things can get a lot worse - inflation can show up as much as two years after a fed liquidity boost.

[stealthpakfa]

holy shit, this guys predictions are spot on so far!

[billB2GBG]

You're already correct since Bear bankruptcy was publicly handled with stated concern about the firm's fall out. So they're not even hiding that part.

The dollar intervention concept seems logical, but then the Fed would have to stop inflating the currency, so yes I agree there. Inflation will continue.

Americans just sit back and let their wealth disappear along with their civil liberties. What can you say at this point?

[LLCoolPass]

I was kidding, mostly.

[Gollywog]

huh? What!?

[LLCoolPass]

he's fled to an unidentified island; there won't be any, any time soon

[Gollywog]

where's the link for his 09 predictions

[Pfapulle]

Kindly accept my 10/10 for this. I also read your predictions for 09. But what was not clear to me was that when you meant 09 will bring great oppurtunities in investing, did you mean that there will be some actual stock market recovery somewhere in 09 led by financials?

[stinky125]

Dood...!11!!

You're a freaking genius...if you and Peter Schiff had a baby.....it'll be a God.

[Wizard364]

Well done. Exactly correct on all predictions.

[lorerax1]

Yeah now ppl know except its allmost OCTOBER!

Buy Gold, Silver, Stock your Food. Stop Being an Optimist and start being Realistic!

Also you can help other ppl by giveing away what you don't need. Tent cities are popping up, Don't know if dissease will spread or not, or if mass starvation will occur. But When the Shit hits the Fan, I think the worst time will happen 2-3 weeks after the crash. ppl might get well a little Kooky.

[cowboycarl04]

At 26, I have accumulated silver (will start gold once I get some more money saved) for a while and am waiting for a moment like this. A raised rate will drop the price of gold momentarily.

Am I wrong on this way of thinking?