President Bill Clinton at the 2008 DNC

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The latest news on inflation and unemployment seem to be pointing to a gathering storm in the U.S. economy. A lot of readers are wondering: Just how bad is this downturn going to be?

The economists say we are in a recession? I don't think so. Would you say that we are more in a "'30s-type depression"? I have never seen the country in such bad shape. Rising gas and food prices. How do we live?
— Mary Ann R., Port Charlotte, Fla.

Well, Mary Ann, weve seen the economy in much worse shape. Theres little doubt left that were headed for — or in the beginnings of — an economic downturn. The housing recession that began in 2006 is one of the worst since the 1930s. Its likely that things will get worse before they get better. But its impossible to say at this moment in time how bad theyll get.

Economic forecasters and weather forecasters have a few things in common. Since no one can see into the future, both kinds of forecasters look at the forces that have created and shaped storms in the past — and then look at current data to help guide their predictions. When you see a sharp drop in the barometer, its a pretty good bet theres a storm coming.

Thats where we are now — the economic barometer has just started dropping. Unfortunately, economists dont have radar and satellite imaging to measure how big the storm is before it gets here.

There are lots of economic data out there to chew on, but the broadest measure of the economys strength is the gross domestic product — the total value of all the stuff we all make and services we sell each other. So a good yardstick of the damage done by a recession is the drop in GDP from start to finish.

By that measure, its too soon to say we're even in a recession: the last GDP data, for the last quarter of 2007, showed very weak growth of 0.6 percent — but growth nonetheless. Given the latest news on job losses in January

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