Monty Hall Problem / Solution made simple with pictures

Monty Hall problem/solution made simple.
21 Film pick a door, game show host.


Monty Hall problem/solution made simple. 21 Film pick a door, game show host.

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Entertainment

Tags:

• Monty Hall problem
• monty hall solution
• 21 film
• game show host
• gameshow
• solution
• problem
• monty hall
• monty
• 3 doors
• doors

[VicVega3]

From reading the problems people are having is the split probability. By picking door #1 you have a 2/3 chance you picked wrong, due to the car being behind only one of the 3 doors. That 2/3 is then equally between the remaining doors at 1/3 a piece. When it is revealed that Door #3 is a goat it now has a 0/3 chance that it is right, but door #1 is still only right 1/3 times, which still leaves 2/3 out there. That 2/3 now lands on Door #2.

[MrNoepoe]

The test has two phases and the 50/50 proposition ignores the first. Let's say you have only one chance to choose the one prize door out of 10 000 doors.

In 9999 out of 10 000 cases, *you're going to pick a losing door*.

Monty continues by opening 9998 losing doors and giving the opportunity to switch. The probability of the first case is still there: in 9999/10 000 cases, you've initially picked the wrong door. But Monty knows where the prize is - and he left a door closed.

I'd switch.

[mitevmartin]

F*****G GENIUS!!

[jubileeshine]

so you are sayin if it was 5 doors and monty open 3 then you got a 80% chance to be right if you switch to the other door.

so if its 100 doors monty open 98 then you are 99 times in 100 winning the car if you change your choice from between 2 options.

shoot tell monty i want a zillion doors i cant lose.

damn inert mathematicians cant relate to new conditions.

2 choices = 50/50. what came before has no bearing on now mathwise.

[NSole93]

you still haven't experimented the possibility of the host reviewing door 2 and the contestant initially choosing door 1!!! which would have made it 50/50,,, i find it faulty to be honest =S

[j0sephmercado3]

@oiltankrs

After Monty reveals that one of the doors you have not chosen was a goat it is no longer 2/3 chance of picking a goat, it becomes 1/3. There's only a 2/3 chance of picking a goat if the initial conditions do not change.

[j0sephmercado3]

Initially you have 3 doors to choose from. By choosing one, the probability of picking the car is 1/3.

Now you have 2 doors left which are each 1/3.. the remaining percentage is 2/3 in total.

When Monty reveals that 1 of the doors you have not chosen is not the car, then the remaining percentage still applies to the door that you have the option to switch to. It's as if you picked BOTH doors but you know which one has the goat behind it. Thus having a percentage of 2/3.

Joe

[blodepker1]

I don't get it.

[oiltankrs]

There's a 2/3 chance that you had already picked the goat. So theres a 2/3 chance that it is a good choice to switch door.