East Coast Economic Update for August 28, 2009

The "Great Recession" is the name that has stuck for the economic decline that began in late 2007. But there's some reason to think that using the word recession is being kind.
The "Great Recession" is the name that has stuck for the economic decline that began in late 2007. But there's some reason to think that using the word recession is being kind.


The U.S. gross domestic product has shrunk 3.9 percent in the past year, the worst drop since the Great Depression. Plenty of observers are willing to say that this recession is much deeper than anything we've seen since the 1930s--including the big dip in the early 1980s, generally accepted as the other candidate for the worst recession since the Great Depression. "I think it's way worse today," says Ridgely Evers of Tapit Partners, a longtime entrepreneur and venture capitalist who founded the software company Netbooks (now known as WorkingPoint). In the recession of 1981 and 1982, "people recognized it as a dip. [Today,] nobody thinks we are going to come back out in relatively short order." This recession seems to have dragged on longer. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the U.S. economy was in recession from July 1981 to November 1982--16 months. But the current recession started in December 2007, says the NBER, so it's already longer than the last big one.


[See Why the Housing Rebound Could Take 20 Years.]


The NBER defines a "recession" based on the all-encompassing gross domestic product figure. That economy-wide statistic may not mean much to the average American. In other words, the question "What is the economy's output?" usually doesn't matter as much as "How hard is it to find a job?" When we look at that question, how does the "Great Recession" compare?


[See 10 Countries in Deep Trouble.]


The unemployment rate is a murky number. It seems simple enough to look at the national unemployment figures released every month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In July, that number was 9.4 percent. At the peak of the early '80s recession--December 1982--unemployment hit 10.8 percent.


So where's the murkiness? The problem is that many of the people one would think of as "unemployed" are not included in this unemployment rate. For one, the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not count unemployed people who have been discouraged by the labor market and have given up looking for work. You are counted as a "discouraged worker" if you are available to work, want to work, and tried to look for work in the past year but gave up within four weeks for reasons including the belief that no work is available. The fact that the national unemployment rate excludes these discouraged workers has led many observers to believe it does not reflect the "real" level of unemployment. "Ask the average person if he or she is unemployed, and there is little hesitation in giving you an answer, but that may not agree with government definitions," says John Williams, an economist who examines government statistics at shadowstats.com.

Category:

People & Blogs

Tags:

• Greatest Depression
• Webbot
• Powers that be

[Rolands131]

We must not forget the senators and congressmen that ignored us just because they saw the light. All they saw was themselves not getting re-elected. Vote them out!

[chena3]

senators congressman and women

should be put on trial

for treasonous acts...

for serving their own self interests

before those of their constituents..

yep time for elected public officials

to remember who they serve ....

tick tock ...america... tick tock

[jeffedinboro09]

Ya know its this kind of thinking that is keeping us from higher growth. People like this will sell everything when things look bad because they think the world will end. I love people like him, because when he's selling, I am buying. The US economy may be slow now, but eventually things will get better. The secret to investing is to sell when things look great and buy when the house is on fire.

[jobedied]

Hey it is now November 2009 and housing starts are jumping in New Jersey Toll Brothers is looking for farm land for more McMansions. Wall Street is close to breaking records heading toward 11,000 DOW. We are rolling in upward trend movement. If it falters lower the prime to below 0 as a way to give more stimulus money to Big Banks. Remeber we are a credit economy we are no longer based on real capital we are based on credit the more of us in debt the more we grow. This is what we are, sorry.

[timothykcct]

Its gonna be tough but I say screw alot of these people...if they are hungry come this time then they deserve to starve in the damn streets..Im not abdicating violence but I will damn sure not feed the idiots that voted the wrong ways and showed complete disreguard for others for the mere purpose of vanity and pride!! LET THEM STARVE and if they come to my door..dont even think about coming in for I did prepare fully..

[rickkluga]

I agree with you.....I think the S&%$t is going to hit the fan real soon!

I wouldn't believe anything that wall street puts out. They lie like HELL!

[mrrebel311]

I am hoping that America will wake up but more and more each day things get worse and look the other way. The time will come hopefully october hes right and people stand up. We are the majority, It is time for change, but for the better not for the worse.

[DavidAKZ]

No, no - the psychological type. The comment about Divine Revelation above is more about the persons emotional state and group think than any basis of reality. Quite the opposite from reasoning IMHO

[curiousEGM]

This video is good. Kittenkattan is close to the events that will eventually unfold and is discrete in passing the information to viewers. We won't get sick from H1N1, we will get sick listening to so many MSM lies, they're endless.

[curiousEGM]

"It's not going to be long." We will probably hear people scream halfway across the globe. Unemployment alone will account for most of the hardship on the streets, people do not have room or patience for those who are jobless, as they are threatened with losses themselves. Gov't has limits, this point is ignored and benefits will dwindle.

[weseyedwalk]

"I think you are projecting" projecting for forecasting by means of deductive reasoning?

[behearsoon]

In case you did not catch this, you may want to google this headline:

"On Facebook, MySpace? Obama's got your e-mail "

It appears they are looking to contract an outside source to datamine our postings.

This is not expected by many of this.