Dispatch: China's GDP and Questions of Strength

China's gross domestic product (GDP) has surpassed Japan's to become the second largest in the world. Analyst Rodger Baker explains the multiple fundamental weaknesses in China's economic system and why GDP is not the only indicator of a state's economic strength.

Category:

News & Politics

Tags:

• stratfor
• china
• gdp
• gross
• domestic
• product
• japan
• u.s.
• second
• fundamental
• weakness
• government
• economics
• rodger
• baker

[lolspower]

funny how george friedman likes to describe countries like turkey and poland as being sooo impressive (Turkey being 17th and Poland 21st or something), he keeps going on and on.. then you hear him talk about China, even though it's the second largest economy he keeps talking it down. I guess China's economic growth is getting in the way of his fairy-tale scenario

Same guy who wrote the book "The Coming Wars with Japan" which hasn't happened yet, you're about 20 years overdue Friedman haha.

[Aomer]

One of the Underlining principles STRATFOR and its Founder and CEO George Friedman states is that common seance (in geo-politics) betrays us. A pattern which has emerged throughout history. Right now things are looking up for China and its economy, but it still has many other hurtles to overcome, hurtles which could easily mean China's undoing. Will China collapse within the coming decades??? Who knows, but as one Confucius philosopher once said, "We Will See..."

[redwhitedude]

@energyalt56 Western media could either be overhyping the PRC or bashing the PRC for human rights. I think solely focusing on these two issues is missing the point on the PRC. Yes the PRC has made tremendous progress but it does bring up the issue of how the country is being run. Namely how the CCP runs the country. Why is this relevant? It can lead to distortions. Look at what happened to South Korea in 1997 and to Japan in 1990.

[redwhitedude]

Expansion and low margins->low cost producer. Very good at producing, wigs, clothes, etc... They have to move up more to higher end stuff like cars, electronics, semiconductors, ships, etc... There needs to be a bigger push for that.

[AlabamaSoldier]

Actually, this guy is more correct than most of you people are willing to admit.

[energyalt56]

i'm from Taiwan, i sturdy China 5 years,Her success were stunned me, Now i.m really respect them

4% GDP of China's 11.2 trillion to be devoted to poor urban area-(Not long ago were 6.4 trillion) They built 10 million aprtment for the poor in 2010 along, there r 26 million more in next 3 years, gorvmt pay from 70-80 to 90% of the rent for the poor ppl,

ppl wake up, China is z role model 4 z world now, thier gorvmt REALLY TAKING CARE PPL, seriously, Don't believe western media, i read Chinese

[redwhitedude]

GDP growth needs translate to more money to the pockets of the workers so that they can buy more stuff.

[enchilada01]

We are looking for a crisis in the country of China to somehow save us from this growing threat. Let me remind you that the U.S. also had several crisis before she emerged as top dawg. keep up the wishfull thinking

[ClarksonsinUSA]

@Teranex EU is not a nation... :)

[Teranex]

Nah US is the second biggest economy. Nr. 1 is the EU.

[ClarksonsinUSA]

This is interesting...Like they just said the American the economy is 3.3 times bigger than China...In the last quarter the US had a 3.1 growth rate,China's economy in the last quarter would have needed a growth rate of 10.23 to not 2 let the gap widen....

China last quarter of 2010 was 9.8.....

[ClarksonsinUSA]

Google it....