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Apophis Now (Redux)

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Uploaded by on Jun 19, 2007

(99942) Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029. Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole", a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006.

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 on the Torino Scale. As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

Despite the fact that there is no longer any significant probability of an Earth impact, the Planetary Society is offering a $50,000 prize for the best plan to put a tracking device on or near the asteroid.

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Top Comments

  • someone who actually agres with me! everyone thinks its a doomsday, but i beg to differ

  • Then we'll have radioactive rocks falling on Earth.

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  • I actually did so

  • well if this asteroid where to hit the earth i do not think it would be a end of world event but it surely could pack a punch if it where known in advance to be heading towards a heavely populated area maybe everybody could be evacuated but the economic consequences would be worldwide all the more so if the area is of world importence for the world economy

  • somebody said here lets hope this asteroid hits the moon rather than the earth i might point out that if it where to hit the moon there is a chance that some of the debris from the impact on the moon may not fall back on the moon due to its weaker gravity and might possibly fall to eaRTH OR GO INTO EARTH ORBIT THESE DEBRIS WOULD BE SMALLER THAN APHOPHIS ITSELF AND A LOT MAY BURN UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE IT WOULD MAKE FOR A NICE METEOR SHOWER

  • hey, it has to happen once before it can not happen 45,000 times... think about it

  • Wow, there is a 1:45000 chance of it hitting hmmm..I wouldnt worry anyway, I'd be 51 by that time :) and that small thing doesnt look like it could impact the earth that much..maybe just a little portion if it does it..and we'll prolly have the technology to deflect it by then anyway

  • is right , that asteroid will not destroy the whole planet but will Kill hundreds of thousands of people

  • If we nuke the thing the dibry will just hit us if its big enough.

    bad idea buddy... :- l

  • I believe in God. He knows what will happen. People just predict about this. I don't want this to happen. Last night I thought of blowing it up.

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