Economic forecasting at the Fed isn't as simple as trying to predict where the economy might be heading. It also involves estimating how monetary policy actions the Fed is considering will likely affect the economy in ways that encourage full employment and stable prices.
In this video, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland explains in layman's terms how and why forecasting is conducted at the Fed.
In a related item, Cleveland Fed researcher Brent Meyer takes a look at the Federal Open Market Committee's
economic projections: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2011/0311/01monpol.cfm
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