Panel 1
Rate curve
5 yr 1 yr
-ve June 05-Oct 08
Rates expected to fall
Panel 2
They did
OCR from July
Turned +ve in Oct
Now steeper
Panel 3
Expectation of
Rates rising
In that period
When though?
Panel 4
Market rates
Flat until 1 yr
Then they rise
Fits with recovery
Panel 5
Will recovery be
Faster or slower?
Faster: Think to fix now
Slower: Low for longer
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