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The price of oil is determined by supply and demand, it's not complicated at all. Speculators don't set prices, they take them as given, and try to determine what they will be. The price of oil, like all commodities, is determined when the bulls equal the bears. At any point, a person can be a bear or a bull, their role is not set. The speculators try to make a profit, that is, they hope they're right. Inflation caused a massive bull market in oil, and deflation, that is, recession, ended it.
Its happening again. GS once again at work...this time using taxpayer bail out money to screw us. Greed and avarice...the same scum Jesus chased from the temple whom went by a different name 2000 years ago: money changers and userers....today we call them oil speculators. During a recession and fighting two wars this kind of callous profiteering would have resulted execution if Washington, Adams, Hamilton and Monroe were still around. We lost our country to big corporations whom rape us
Remember the $200 oil price target call from Goldman Sachs analysts when oil price was $120-$130, That was the they started to sell their future oil contracts and built their put positions. GS was they key player in EVERY speculative bubble.
They provide market liquidity and accept risk which help achieve true price discovery. But if there are way way more specs than hedgers people lose faith. The CFTC does a poor job of reporting commodity s/h numbers. For example, banks that spec in crude are classified as hedgers because they truly hedge in other markets like T-Bills.
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Google "Goldman Sachs $200 oil price"