Peak Oil Update - July/August 2009

Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5521

Oilwatch Monthly August 2009
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5678

Category:

People & Blogs

Tags:

• peak
• oil
• update
• july
• august
• 2009
• production
• zarathustra

[jjstoney1]

Peak oil already will destroy 5 billion of the world's population by simple mathematics and the law of thermodynamics. All the other talk of "the economy" is moot. The economy=energy. Not money, gold, nor products, etc. Without sufficient hydrocarbon energy our planet must go back to the amount of sunlight that humans can capture per year to support our species. What is really developed that can realistically do that at this time?

[zthustra]

@jjstoney1

One of the big reasons I dwell on the monetary system and the economy is because they monetary and fiscal problems are getting in the way of other reforms needed to mitigate the comming problems that are all energy and resource related.

[flamifer]

zthustra, well done. Or should I call you Casandra? We are sitting on a sinking luxury liner hoping that it will hold on a while longer. We do not want to go into the rescue boats because we fear the dark and insecure future and also because it is so much more cosy as it is now.

The aged selfish masters of the world want to rule just a little bit longer, or perhaps, they think, if they are lucky they will die before all goes down the drain.

You can not image how fragile our economies are.

[Stan1208]

I believe that by late 2011, we will see a huge spike in gas prices. 2010 should be the last stable year we have.

[MarkProffitt]

WHY is oil production declining? Efficiency has been increasing and can increase to double what it is today. There is no reason to pump crude oil is the refining capacity does not exist to turn into usable products. As you correctly pointed out, the financial system drastically effect oil production. All of these factors could have been predicted and it is equally if not more likely the declines in production are from those and not a shortage of real supply.

[johnsenkenn]

@zthustra

What I understand you are saying we are in peak oil right now, and so have people done since 1927. And if you keep claiming the peak oil is here, every 5 - 10 years, you might some day be right, but not for now.

[johnsenkenn]

@zthustra

I don't understand economy, do you understand economy, what's so difficult to understand. If the supply is less than demand, the price goes up....no. The price is falling so the demand and supply are about where it should be, or even a bit oversupplied. So the flat oil production got nothing to do with peak oil, So far the peak oil is a scam, should there ever be ( and when ) a enegy supply problem, I don't know, but it is not for the moment. The peak oil is a hype.

[zthustra]

@johnsenkenn

I don't think you understand peak oil economic theory ... and, I do mean that in the best way. I can't explain in it 500 char, so you'll have to look for it elsewhere if you think it is worth your time. Maybe I will take a stab at explaining unsatisfied demand and price moves. I'm reluctant to do that because I really don't feel that I am terribly well qualified to dive into that level of explaination. Look for the video and please comment when it is out.

[zthustra]

@johnsenkenn

Oil production is not "past peak" until it begins its long decline. We might think it peaked in Aug 2008, but responsible and knowledgeable people will always say things like "probably peaked" and won't say we are past peak until it actually happens. Production could stay flat much longer than many expect and we could see a new peak before going over the edge.

[johnsenkenn]

@zthustra

It is reasonable to assume from the point we stand, that the demand for oil will increase unless the west goes belly up, like Russia or Rome. Because of the Chinese India and whoever. But that was not the point, your point was that the production had been flat for some years, ergo the production have peaked. That cannot be so, the prices are falling......and that cannot happening if the production is below the demand. So this flat production and falling prices must simply be no deman

[zthustra]

@zthustra

It isn't just that production has been flat for five years. And I don't think you should confuse me with the real experts like Matthew Simmons, Robert Hirsch, Colin Campbell and Richard Heinberg. What they say is more more important than anything that I say. I believe them. I am watching the trend lines and throwing in my two cents. What would you need to be convinced? An official report to the DOE by experts in the field? Maybe you will only believe it ten years after it is past?