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Stop Calling it an Economic Recovery!

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Published on Jun 21, 2014

For more information on this podcast visit: http://smaulgld.com/stop-calling-it-a...
Podcast Summary:
0:00-4:05 Introduction
Could Just About Anyone Do Janet Yellen's Job?
4:05-5:05 discussion of Janet Yellen's job.
5:05-7:20 discussion of Yellen's testimony re unemployment. Discussion of the initial jobless claims data and interpreting declining claims as a strengthening of the labor market.The drop in initial jobless claims is a function of labor force having fewer people left to fire. While initial jobless claims are at "pre recession levels" hiring is not and still is far less than is needed to claim "recovery"
7:20-9:40 discussion of Ms. Yellen's views on inflation. Inflation remains below the Fed's 2% target. Ms. Yellen does not admit that the CPI understates inflation. Ms Yellen stated that for the Fed to achieve their inflation and employment targets highly accommodative policy is necessary and overshooting the Fed's inflation target is an acceptable risk if continued accommodative policy helps the Fed attain its employment objectives. This caused gold and silver to soar as it indicated the Fed is willing to be behind the curve on inflation.
Discussion of why inflation does not increase consumption and spending.
9:40-10:46 discussion of how the Fed no longer seems to be counting on a housing "recovery" to drive the economy, yet insists the economy will get better even without a robust housing market. The Fed's focus now appears to be solely on hitting its inflation and employment targets.
10:46-14:15 The Fed's plan to impose exit fees on bond funds is discussed. Discussion of the Fed's non recovery and its reliance no on rising stock prices.
Could Practically Anyone Do Janet Yellen's Job?
14:15-15:18 discussed again!
Who Will Buy the Bonds that The Fed Won't as QE Ends?
15:18-16:40 Ms. Yellen was not asked who is buying the bonds that the Fed is not buying. Discussion of the elimination of a market dynamic in the bond market.
16:40-18:18 the economy added 217,000 nonfarm payroll jobs during May. Assuming payroll numbers are correctly calculated and the jobs are full time well paying ones, -- they are still not enough for a real recovery according to Rep. Kevin Brady who claims 371,000 new jobs are needed.
Using the Word "Recovery" is an Insult to the Unemployed and Struggling Workers
18:18-20:45 discussion of the insistence of the narrative that there is a economic and labor market recovery when in reality there is just a recovery in stock prices.
20:45-23:54 discussion of whether mortgage lending is a good business and whether people moving in and out of increasingly more expensive houses is a good way to drive an economy. Discussion of the housing inventory shortage myth.
23:54 -26:00 discussion of what the 2nd quarter GDP will be.
Central Banks Talking About a New Era of No/Low Growth
26:00-29:15 Discussion of how central banks are floating the concept the growth may no longer be attainable and therefore central bank intervention is and will always be necessary. . Discussion of how the Fed backstops the markets since the original Greenspan put.
29:15-35:15 Will the Fed be able to prop up the stock market again?
Discussion of the disconnect between the economy and the stock market.
Discussion of why companies buy back their own stocks and divert capital from capital investment and employee hiring. Discussion of when it makes sense for lenders to make bad loans. Discussion of the flaw in the Fed's outcome based policy (higher home and stock prices) without a corresponding underlying basis for higher prices.
35:15-36:15 Discussion whether long term low rates encourage inaction by borrowers and how the Fed can manipulate rates low and keep them there.
36:15 Are the recovery and its gains "real? Discussion of how the artificial gains in the stock market have provide some large real gains for some investors. These gains will be used to justify the Fed's performance. The probability of a stock market crash and its aftermath are discussed.
Discussion of whether the Fed and its allies can control the political and economic environment.
How Capitalistic Wealth Attracts Socialism
41:45-44:10 discussion how the gains of capitalism sow the seeds of socialism and how socialism destroys it. Each centrally planned mistake (guaranteed loans causing higher student loan and home prices) leads to more centrally planned mistakes (lower government lending standards, forgive/defer debt). What is the real value of a college education?
44:10-50:48 Discussion of Michelle Obama's comments on food choices. Discussion of the educational and work background of U.S. policy makers and their insistence in constant intervention in the economy and other aspects of civic life.
50:48 Discussion of homeownership rates and happiness.

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