FTSE 100 Elliott Wave 15/10/2010

This is my interpretation using Technical Analysis and Elliott Wave Theory to look at the FTSE 100. Elliott wave is my prefered tool when looking at the stock market, I believe that it can work to reflect the "psychology" of the market quite acurately.

THE SOUND QUALITY IS TERRIBLE!!! But I think you may get the jist of it...
My appologies everyone, please if you know better recording software tell me what you use (preferably free software).

I am NOT a very experienced trader or technical analyst, but I am very interest in developing my skills and welcome you to share your experienced and advice so that we may both learn from it.



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[DuginOz]

Thanks mate great post, you're miles ahead of me. I'm very much a begginner still.

Little perplexed because a crrection seems imminent although the data down here in Oz is so positive. Perhaps it is although the market has already priced it in. Any thoughts on this?

[Andronichuk]

when you say a correction seems imminent, are you talking about big picture or in relation to the 15min time fram in the video?

My personal view is that the news is not worth trading: If you look at when the markets started crashing (2007) and when the news started talking of recession (2008) you will see that the media is clueless!

Also they report on almost everything financial/economical AFTER the market moves....

[Andronichuk]

so to continue this thought...

Remember that things being reported (ie figures) are PAST figures...

so I would say the market has already discounted this.

Also remember: 90% of people who trade (or their abouts) lose... so when I hear 90% of people saying "higher higher higher" I usually think: "we might crash again" (and this is my longer term view).

Like I say, I am not that experienced at this... but I do think being contrarian to most people may be good at times...

[Andronichuk]

GUYS, I just noticed watching the video that I had muddled my words a little...

When I said the head and shoulders target projected to 5500...I meant 5550 (perhaps you worked this out)...

Appologies for such a mistake (was a tad drunk earlier that night)

[DuginOz]

My intuition sais pullback now, then gradual run over the year, but the bulls appear to still have control.

How nervy do you read the market and do you see a strong retracement?

[DuginOz]

Thanks

To clarify, correction is probably too strong - pullback is what I anticipate & your post appears to suggest this over the coming week or so.

Oz employment, int rates, inflation, gdp, bank sector and positioning in resources sector are all "perceiveably" positive at present - and PE ratios at 11 compared to the long term avg of 14.5 suggest the ASX200should push 5500 this year.

The UK appears in worse shape - however it is unsual for 2 markets to go in different directions.