Effective Forecasting - The Desired vs The Likely

Complete video at: http://fora.tv/2008/01/11/Paul_Saffo_Secret_to_Effective_Forecasting

Technology forecaster Paul Saffo explains the value of objectivity to making effective forecasts.

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As part of The Long Now Foundation's Seminars About Long-term Thinking, technology forecaster and strategist Paul Saffo presents Embracing Uncertainty: The Secret to Effective Forecasting.

Paul Saffo is a forecaster and strategist with over two decades experience exploring long-term technological change and its practical impact on business and society. Paul is Chairman of the Samsung Science Board, and serves on a variety of other boards and advisory panels, including the Stanford Advisory Council on Science, Technology and Society, and the Long Now Foundation, as well as the boards of several public and pre-public companies located the United States and abroad. He is also a Fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences and has served as an advisor and Forum Fellow to the World Economic Forum, which in the late 1990s named Paul one of its "100 Global Leaders For Tomorrow."

Paul's essays have appeared in numerous publications, including Business 2.0, Fortune, The Harvard Business Review, The Los Angeles Times, Newsweek, The New York Times and the Washington Post and Wired. Paul holds degrees from Harvard College, Cambridge University, and Stanford University. IFTF is a 30-year old foundation that provides strategic planning and forecasting services to major corporations and government agencies.

Paul currently serves on the Board of the Institute for the Future and the Long Now Foundation. He is also the Chairman of Samsung Science Advisory Board.

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Science & Technology

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[rmeddy1]

Do not derive the "Ought" from the "Is"

[beancube2008]

Bibles are common enemies of investigation for truths and facts.

[ontiptoes]

It's a mixture of bunkum and the_bl**ding_obvious. Gee, in Amerika suckers pay money for this stuff.

[ontiptoes]

"Rather it's just elite discussion, which is meaningless when it does mean political decisions."

I'd call it claptrap.

[teemuruskeepaa]

I've been thinkin ForaTV's concept and found that people do not want to watch others discuss -they want to discuss themselves. And since Youtube doesn't work as an easy video conference service, it's too demanding, people don't watch discussions on Youtube. ForaTV thinks that showing others discuss is real free information. Rather it's just elite discussion, which is meaningless when it does not mean political decisions by representatives.

[teemuruskeepaa]

I've been thing ForaTV's consept and found that people do not want to watch others discuss -they want to discuss themselves. And since Youtube doesn't work as a easy video conference service, it's too demanding, people don't watch discuss on Youtube. ForaTV thinks that showing others discuss is real free information. Rather it's just elite discussion, which is meaningless when it does mean political decisions.

[studio7manga]

Good to see an interesting video has been posted. *Goes to watch full clip*