Reasoning under uncertainty #1 - why and how

In this clip I argue for doing reasoning under uncertainty and for doing this using the mathematical tool of probability.

The first practical demonstration of the principles of probabilistic reasoning can be found
in clip number 3, "inverse implication".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWH4VXqnQ9Y

There a couple of examples (dice and weather) are used to show that you can do reasoning in the opposite direction of an implication. If this was pure deductive logic, this would be the fallacy of affirming the consequent.

If you want a solid foundations for the calculations done in that clip,
it's found at clip 2b - mathematical foundations.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKXZtK6z-DU

See also the road-map introduction clip, video number 0:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXaKEWrNFww

Category:

Howto & Style

Tags:

• probability
• Bayes
• Bayesian
• reasoning
• rationality
• logic
• probabilistic
• uncertainty

[clray123]

I'm not sure if there is much value in contrasting deductive and inductive reasoning. The derivation of probability theory axioms by Cox relies on deductive reasoning, going towards satisfying a set of precise criteria. Applying the rules of probability theory is itself an exercise in deductive reasoning.

[trondreitan]

I think there is value in contrasting deductive and inductive reasoning. The wanted properties (desiderata) in themselves are meant to delve into the realm of the uncertain. Deductive logic does as you say take over from there, but it means that applying the laws of probability is logic+the desiderata. That makes all the difference.

[NawwLeans]

I'm not sure, but I think he is hiding in a crate under a porch somewhere in Prague. No one is looking for him -- he is just hiding in the crate.