Peak Oil Economics

Zarathustra attempts to make peak oil economics simpler but probably over simplifies things to fit in 10 minutes.

This video explains why five and a half years of flat oil production are NOT the product of supply and demand in an economic slump.

Category:

People & Blogs

Tags:

• peak
• oil
• supply
• and
• demand
• economics

[renegade4dio]

I have a question: Have you seen a crude production chart for 1950-present? Does it show more of 2002-2005? That doesn't seem to me to be a long enough lead-in for that steady rise in 2002-2005 to be meaningful, and therefor for the chart to be meaningful. I'm gonna have to go do a little research myself and see if I can find that longer term chart that I want.

[zthustra]

@renegade4dio

PM'd you a link to one that went back to 1970 I think. In any event, my projection mirrored the IEA's 2006 projection and they are the world experts, or so I am led to believe.

[gunsandbullhorns]

You're right about 10min being insufficient. There's plenty more factors at play here that need to be accounted for. These charts never make sense when you think in terms of nominal USDollar prices. Case and Point: The first Oil shock (in '73) was caused by the an anticipated 4× devaluation of the USDollar. OPEC priced oil in terms of gold after Nixon took us off the gold-standard. This was silly on the part of OPEC, but that's another discussion. Do you get my point?

[zthustra]

@gunsandbullhorns

I really wanted to squeeze in a discussion of how money supply affected price or the relative strenght of the dollar against other currencies.

There is so much more to be said about cycles of price increases and demand destruction (going out of business forever) followed by falling prices and on and one until their are only a few left with the ability to buy oil. It just doesn't fit!

Deniers always follow the simple supply-price-demand thingy, so I did the same.

[MrEnergyCzar]

good explanation on a complex topic...

[Teloculos]

Exellent video Z, good introduction to economic consequences of these theories. I think you simplified it about as much as possible without losing the essentials. Thanks for the vid

[valhala56]

Funny how the term "Peak Oil" is not used in coverage of the Macondo Blowout in the Gulf of Mexico. People are angrier then fuck, but they are directing all their anger at BP CEO Tony Hayword and BP. Probaly rightly so, but they fail to see their own culperbility in the mess. Our demand for Oil products has only incentivised Sociopathic companies like BP to satisify our needs for the Black Gold.

[TheAtheistPaladin]

LOL I loved your opening.

[SeruQuik]

Occam's razor can't dig into the earth deep enough to strike oil, it seems.