"The Myth of the Rational Voter" by Bryan Caplan (1/6)
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@vinbuik I don't think it does, and there's order in randomness as well, because of regulating forces.
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@Visfen the way I understand it, is that chaos theory operates within a deterministic system.A system that becomes too complex to predict over time.
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@vinbuik So you deny chaos theory?
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What he says in the beginning about votes cancelling each other out isn't totally true. People's information has to be "unbiased" for this to be the case; the mere fact of their information being "random" isn't enough. The obvious problem is that the unbiasedness assumption is completely artificial and seems just to be a clever way of assuming the answer you want to be true.
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@verpetas Asymmetry. Good example. Mind if I use it?
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The reason why I disliked this video is not owing to Professor Caplan, but entirely owing to the the fact that idiot who posted the video posted a truncated version of it (apparently just before the punch line!). Otherwise, the argument of Dr. Caplan seemed to be progressing on a very interesting track - I'll have to find a more intelligent source than FFF to get to the bottom of this matter! Why are American students so puerile?!
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@86kinky86 Correct. Doesn't sound as though you watched it through. 9:12
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I've been saying this (in a far less eloquent and statistically grounded fashion) for years. Thank you, sir.
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that's a flawed model because voters who are not informed do note make random voting decisions.
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Add a tablespoon of wine to a bottle of sewage, and you get a bottle of sewage. Add a tablespoon of sewage to a bottle of wine, and you get a bottle of sewage.
verpetas 2 years ago 6
nothing is random. Some systems are sufficiently complex as to be unpredictable, but nothing in the universe is truly random, even at the quantum level.
vinbuik 6 months ago