5 Change in Thinking - the Monty Hall Paradox

Here's a paradox that you can turn into cash by betting against friends. The Monty Hall Paradox works against your intuition, intuition that can be changed only through experience. Keys to succeeding at this are challenging what you know, collecting data rather than looking at a single event, and looking at and for relationships.

Category:

News & Politics

Tags:

• monty
• hall
• paradox
• ron
• davison
• systems
• thinking
• analysis
• intuition
• experience
• statistics
• relationships

[ZeusDeusEx]

lol

[jeremyemilio]

@objectivethirdparty

Instead of looking at facebook just frickin' try it. Use 3 paper cups and a peanut. Get a friend to pick. Remove one cup (not the one with the peanut) and then see if he was right. Do it 50 times or so and keep track. Then do the same thing, only this time switch after the cup's been taken away. If you REALLY want to check your theory, use 50 cups and remove 48 after the pick. Keep 10 times; switch 10 times. Same 50/50 theory should hold ... if it wasn't so dumb.

[objectivethirdparty]

@medaguy123 That is not true. I found a facebook page that blows your theory out of the water. The guy calls Marilyn Vos Savant to task.

[objectivethirdparty]

@jeremyemilio Watch your language and your insults.

You should look on facebook. I found a page where a guy really responds to Marilyn Vos Savant and this theory.

[objectivethirdparty]

@richardmullins44 Don't believe everything you hear. You don't benefit by switching doors. There's a facebook page where someone really calls Marilyn Vos Savant and this theory to task on this.

[richardmullins44]

thank you tapecutter. I am astounded - many people have done simulations of this- perhaps they have been looking at the wrong problem

wittenstein said there are no philosophical problems, only misunderstandings of of language.

[richardmullins44]

your are right dustman. However I think peter the mad cow may be on the right track.

the point about multiple plays of the game is that we get to see that we are being offered the choice each time, to change.

but if we only see the game once, do we know the "provenance" of the game. for example, why are we being offered the choice to change. Is it because the host knows we have made the right choice, and is trying to trick us into changing?

[dustman1240]

@richardmullins44 odds dont change no matter how many times u play.

[richardmullins44]

there is some truth in what scottburton says. It is not stupid to say that a rule works in the long run, but is not the best rule for an individual case.

[badpanda84]

@scottburton11 "If you get to play this game more than once, your odds improve by switching - you'll win 2/3rds of the time. But if you only play once, probability doesn't matter and it's a 50/50 proposition "

WTF - that is the stupidest thing I have ever heard. you still have a 66% chance of winning even if you only play once. However if you lose while it is unluckly it isnt exactly shocking