Matt Simmons (Bloomberg): Peak Oil Now, Oil Perhaps to $300

Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International in Houston, talked yesterday with Bloomberg's Rhonda Schaffler about the need to address energy use, his view that global supply has peaked and the likelihood oil prices could reach as much as $300 a barrel. (Source: Bloomberg)

Originally posted on Youtube by profgoose

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• Matthew
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• cera

[bustermk2]

This "idiot" as you call him has been preaching this message for years now ... and it seems that everything he is talking about is coming to pass.

"Demand Destruction" is only a buzz word for "recession". Real demand destruction will occur when we are all scrounging through dumpsters for scraps of food.

[danbuck333]

Matt Simmons is one of the most honest and knowledgeable persons in the oil industry , an idiot he is not

[JiveDadson]

Aaarg. I got that bass-ackwards. Oil for immediate delivery was MORE EXPENSIVE than oil for future delivery. That's what backwardation is. Obviously it cannot result from buying pressure in the futures market. Quite the opposite. The shorts got squeezed.

[JiveDadson]

Common sense and two government investigations say long side speculation had nothing to do with the run-up in price during '07 and early '08. The market was in backwardation during much of the run-up. That means oil for immediate or near term delivery was cheaper than far term. Buying does not make the good being acquired cheaper! When many of the shorts were squeezed out, the market started returning to contango, and the price dropped back to the 115 range. See the note about SemGroup LP.

[JiveDadson]

The big run-up from 110 to 147 occurred when some cowboys from Oklahoma (SemGroup L.P.) who were short an obscene number of contracts were short squeezed - forced to buy in. When they were done buying (and bankrupt), the price returned to the 115 range.

You could tell that the money did not "flood into oil futures" on the long side by simply observing that during most of 2007 and part of 08, the market was in backwardation, indicating short supply and/or selling pressure.

[JimboWHO]

Get a load of this clown calling a genius an idiot AND his "demand deconstruction." The term is demand DESTRUCTION.

[callmebigpapa]

M. King Hubbert accurately predicted the peak of oil in the USA ..... so shall the worldwide supplies follow.

[callmebigpapa]

That chick is hot!!!

[novatrek]

Theres all sorts of idiots.

[petehuss]

At the end of the day (actually 30 days for oil futures), someone has to take delivery for that oil. If it was bid up to an unnatural level, you would see a large spread between the ask and the bid when the option matures. Since this is not happening... since people are eagerly taking delivery at the higher price, there is no bubble. Oil really is worth $145 a barrel because someone is buying real oil and taking delivery at that price.

[talktal]

so do you think it's just a coincidence that just after the sub prime bubble popped last year, all this money started to flood into oil futures market and you started to see the bull market? this has nothing to do with peak of oil, this has everything to do with hedge fund managers saving their asses as risky investment in the real estate market and putting money into commodities.