RE: Abiogenesis Made Difficult Pt. 2 (stevebee92653)

I show how stevebee's probability calculations are flawed.

Category:

Science & Technology

Tags:

• Rick
• Pierson
• DNAunion
• stevebee92653
• Anders
• Lyndon
• evolution
• creation
• probability
• origin
• of
• life

[prospero811]

To find out the probability of a series of coin flips coming up a certain way, you take the 1/2 probability on the first flip times the 1/2 for the second flip. So, the probability of getting two heads in a row is 1/4. The probability of getting 3 heads in arow is 1/8. The probability of getting 4 hads in a raow is 1/32. Five in row 1/64. Six in a row 1/128. Seven in a row 1/256, and so on. You multiply the odds of each flip.

[DNAunion]

That works IF you:

1) try to get x heads in a single shot (flip all coins at once and get all of them to come up heads)

2) toss each coin in the sequence only once

If you don't believe what I said in the video, try it for yourself!

Take 12 coins and flip the first one until you get a heads, then flip the second until you get a heads, and so on, until you end up with 12 heads: then see how many total tosses it took you to get 12. It will be close to 24, and not close to 4096.

[Escuelavieja100]

@RespectMyHate Radiometric dating isn't used on fossils. The fossil record supports evolution, it clearly demonstrates speciation from the top to the bottom. Why is there no bunnys in the lower layers? Why no humans? All we have is single cell organisms gradually changing to things like sponges, jellyfish, and eventually fish with bones and without.

[0liverKlozoff]

Thanks, I hate misinformation. The old "it's so improbable" argument takes a poor grasp of probability and the denial of observations -critically- that evolution produces organisms gradually, not a bacteria in one shot.

There are many natural things that can sort by chirality (left/right-hand) incl. calcite, UV, majority rule, etc.

Less than a thimbleful of random RNA sequences has many enzymes with a variety of active biologically useful abilities [Ekland, Science], let alone a planetful..

[anzwertree]

Thank you for doing this. Misinformation irritates me to no end. I'm just glad there are others out here exposing the nonsense

[RespectMyHate]

@warren52nz When were dead we'll find out the truth.

[warren52nz]

@RespectMyHate "Mountains of evidence like what?" Like THIS: How we know Evolution is correct: watch?v=kfTbrHg8KGQ&feature=sd­ig&et=1262923627.92 watch?v=PbcCiia1kYE watch?v=5nj587d5ies&feature=em­ail watch?v=i1fGkFuHIu0&feature=re­lated watch?v=-CvX_mD5weM&feature=re­c-HM-fresh+div You know NOTHING about dating techniques. I HAVE looked it up! Watch this: watch?v=w5369-OobM4&feature=ch­annel Where are all the teachers over there??? It's PATHETIC!!!

[RespectMyHate]

@warren52nz Mountains of evidence like what? because richard dawkins believe it? The theory of evolution is a psuedo science.

Thats why in the "fossil record" animals fossils suddenly appear, fully complex structures.

Thats way radioactive dating can't date things into the millions (look it up)

The rocks date the fossils and the fossils date the rocks, this is circular reasoning.

What can you possible tell me about evolution, tell me one thing.

[warren52nz]

Speaking to this video, I'd like to add this to make it clearer.

The probability of 24 comes from a process of flipping each coin UNTIL it gives a head then moving on. The Creationist (who got it wrong) is using the case where ALL coins (to stay with the simplified example) are flipped each time until one of the tosses gives all heads.

That's different. The analogy of the first method is where Natural Selection is involved and the second is where it is not. Natural Selection is very powerful.

[warren52nz]

@RespectMyHate I'd HATE to be on your side of this "debate". My views are backed up by MOUNTAINS of evidence and yours is based on pure faith (and BAD faith at that).

But you don't have to be on the losing side, just walk towards the light.

8^)

[warren52nz]

@RespectMyHate "Life evolving on its own is impossible"

OK, let's get serious now. Which particular part of Evolution is impossible and why? Just putting your fingers in your ears and closing your eyes and saying it's impossible doesn't cut it. If you can put a dent in the Theory of Evolution you'll probably win a Nobel Prize because no one else has after 150 years of trying!

Saying Evolution is impossible is like saying the Earth is flat. People are laughing at you by now.

You KNOW I'm right