German Army Peak Oil Study - within 10 years oil shortages may collapse global economy

In November 2010, the German Military released a study on the effects of Peak Oil. This video summarizes that study.

• Category

  News & Politics

[dieselscience]

No, the Nazis failed. I did NOT fail. I am a grammar COMMANDO!

[argh523]

And now without the sarcasm: Peak oil is a very real thing, it happend in the US and many other countries already, it has to happen globally someday, the only question is when.

And that new technology will revert the decline was claimed during the us peak oil too, but didn't come true. US is now increasing production with fracking, but that will only help for a while, and it doesn't help to bring down the price of oil, because it wouldn't be worth it if it wasn't so expensive.

[hitssquad]

How is that supposed to support your theses that getting wealthier = getting poorer, and that "Americans are not getting wealthier"?

[hitssquad]

"the economic growth isn't even "self supporting""

What does that mean?

[bdist]

For the world as a whole yes, not for the US which is somewhere around 2% per annum. Even 4% would not be enough to go from today's $100/barrel to 180 in 7 years. If you look back during the 50's, 60's, 90's we had growth at 4% for extendede periods of time where the price of oil fell. Not so anymore. The prices stays records high even though the economic growth isn't even "self supporting" anymore as a FED member put it.

[hitssquad]

"IMF predicts oil price of $180 in 2020."

It also predicts: "a roughly 4% per annum real GDP growth rate."

[hitssquad]

It looks like the point forecast was about $168: tinyu rl. com/6vw93pc

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"the world will be [...] more local"

...Because of the Triple-E?

[hitssquad]

The oil embargo was in 1973.

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Many rich people are in the bottom 10% of income.

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"1% of the pop have as much money as the other 99%"

Having money isn't the same thing as one's income within a given calendar year. See: Economic Facts and Fallacies, by Thomas Sowell.

[bdist]

IMF predicts oil price of $180 in 2020. That will be fine. But the world will be different - more local if you will. That too is just a guess. But assuming everything will be just fine or better seems illogical.

[bdist]

"2012 was the year of highest average oil price" No

Fine it was the 2nd most expensive for all years that matter. 80's was due to embargo. Not the case now. 19th century is irrelevant. 2013 will be another of top 10 years.

"Americans are not getting wealthier" False

That graph tells me nothing of the distribution of the disposable income. From what I've seen the rich now have higher disp income, average American lower. The graph is useless as ~1% of the pop have as much money as the other 99%

[hitssquad]

"2012 was the year of highest average oil price"

No: tinyu rl. com/adc2l

Oil was more expensive in 2011, 2008, 1981, 1980, and the 19th century.

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It isn't the specific resources people ultimately value. It's the services they provide. Oil provides more service value today than it did at any time in the past. Have you factored that in?

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"Americans are not getting wealthier"

False: tinyu rl. com/pwe5m3r

aei-ideas. org/channel/carpe-diem