PredictingEarthquakes&Volcanoes_Part1of7.mov

ISEnO — May 02, 2010 — Part 1 of 7 from one-hour lecture on: Predicting Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions:What Can and Can't Now Be Done
www.iris.edu Education & Outreach Distinguished Lectureship
April 20th, 2010 - IRIS/SSA Public Lecture by Dr. Stephen Malone
Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) - Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI), Portland, Oregon
Predicting disastrous earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is a major goal of earth science research. What is the current state-of-the-art in making such predictions? An apparent paradox is that, while volcanic eruptions can often be predicted using earthquake data, there is currently no scientifically valid method of predicting earthquakes, despite claims often made in the popular press. A valid and socially useful prediction is one that includes size, place and time in more detail than can be expected from random chance.
This talk will cover some successful predictions of volcanic eruptions and compare these to some previous attempts at earthquake prediction. What is fundamentally different about earthquakes that make them so hard to predict? What are some promising avenues of research such as "remote triggering" of earthquakes and the newly discovered Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) that may lead to success in the future?
Finally, while not true prediction, how could earthquake early warning technology be used today to mitigate some earthquake hazards? Will accurate earthquake forecasting be possible in the near future or will we forever wonder when the next big earthquake will occur?

Category:

Science & Technology

Tags:

• predicting
• earthquakes
• volcanoes
• volcanic
• eruptions
• earth
• science
• pacific
• northwest
• turkey
• chile
• prediction
• lecture
• speaker
• 2010

[nzjosh100]

@Mikeyrose94 - This could not be done because we currently do not fully understand the different factors well enough to put them into an equation. One way I have heard it may be possible in the future to "predict" earthquakes is to measure the stress built up between major earthquakes on the same fault. But a complication to this is that because plate tectonics has only been a major scientific fact since the 1960's and quakes can be hundreds of years between one another on any given fault.

[mikeyrose94]

I may only be 16, but I have always believed that all aspects of nature have an equation or maths behind their occurance such as water using fluid dynamics - I believe... couldnt predicting these natural disasters be solved by linking all the different factors together into an equation? please either prove why i am wrong or if this would be possible.... thanks.