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Whatever your expenses in retirement, you must have enough cash flow, from sources other than your job, to cover those expenses indefinitely into the future. For the average 65 year old, non-smoking couple, that means an average of thirty years.
There are three main sources of cash flow in retirement: Social Security, pensions and investment income. While many view Social Security as the primary source of retirement income, we recommend to our clients that they wait until age 70 to begin taking Social Security. We view it not as a source of retirement income but as a source of longevity insurance.
The first step, in creating the cash flow you will need in retirement, is to know how much cash flow you will need. This mean putting together a personal income statement (Step #1) and projecting forward the expenses.
Then begin adding up the sources of cash flow you will have. Subtract the total from your projected expenses. The remainder, if any, will have to come from investment income.
The next step is to determine the assets required to generate the needed investment income with, if possible, an almost zero chance of outliving those assets. Many financial planners use a 4% withdrawal rule of thumb that gives you a 95% chance that you will outlive your assets. But that is a 5% chance you will end up old, broke and at the mercy of others.
Even a 5% chance of running out of money is too high. When evaluating probabilities, you don't just look at the odds but also what academics call the "magnitude of failure". If the magnitude of failure is great, as in the case of running out of money before you run out of breath, then any chance of failure is too much.
The reality is, in some cases, it may be too late. If you did not begin this process early enough, you may have to accept some risk of running out of money. But the goal is, if at all possible, to create the cash flow needed to have an almost certain probability of being able to sustain your lifestyle indefinitely into the future.
You will also have to account for the effects of inflation, which most people badly underestimate.
Healthcare is the other X factor, especially when projecting future expenses in retirement. Healthcare costs have been rising at a much faster rate than core inflation. This is where a solid insurance plan (Step #2) comes into play.
A comprehensive insurance plan, which covers major medical, outpatient, and long-term care, protects your nest egg and allows you to plan for more predictable and reasonable expense levels. Without a solid insurance plan, it is almost impossible to project how much money you will need in the future and therefore almost impossible to meet the goal of a zero probability of running out of money.
Once you know your starting income requirement and inflation assumptions, then you can back into a required rate of return. This is the average return your money will have to earn to be able to pay you, pay Uncle Sam and keep up with inflation.
The required rate of return will dictate what building materials you will need to construct your financial house. The investments you choose should be specific to your income and expense projections.
Once you know what return you need, you only take on as much risk as is required to get that return. If you can get by on bond returns, then you shouldn't be investing in the stock market.
Many people discover they need a much higher return than traditional investment income portfolios are capable of. In my experience, most people who do the math will find they need low double-digit yields in order to create enough cash flow to maintain their lifestyle indefinitely.
Understand, your biggest risk is not the fluctuations in the stock market or the economy - it is living too long.
Figuring out how much money you need is not a guess. Getting this wrong can be disastrous.
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Step #1 - Retirement Preparedness Checklist: Create Personal Financial Statementsby KimSnider501 views
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