Historian vs Futurist on Human Progress - Long Now Foundation

Complete video at: http://fora.tv/2008/04/28/Niall_Ferguson_and_Peter_Schwartz_on_Human_Progress

Historian Niall Ferguson debates futurist author Peter Schwartz on the overall nature of human progress.

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Niall Ferguson and Peter Schwartz present Historian vs. Futurist on Human Progress as part of The Long Now Foundation's Seminars about Long-term Thinking.

Niall Ferguson, MA, D.Phil., is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University. He is a resident faculty member of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies.

He is also a Senior Research Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford University, and a Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

He is most recently the author of the books The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West (2006) and Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire (2004).

Peter Schwartz is cofounder and chairman of Global Business Network (GBN), a unique membership organization and worldwide network of strategists, business executives, scientists, and artists based in Emeryville, California. Established in 01988, GBN specializes in corporate scenario planning and research on the future of the business environment. From 01982 to 01986, Peter headed scenario planning for the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies in London. His team conducted comprehensive analyses of the global business and political environment and worked with senior management to create successful strategies.

Schwartz is the co-author of both the 01999 books The Long Boom, and When Good Companies Do Bad Things: Responsibility and Risk in an Age of Globalization, and is the author of the 01991 book, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. He is a member of the Long Now Foundation's Board of Directors.

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[Hashishin13]

look up the history of the apache, commanche and the aztecs. People always like to idealize the native americans, it wasn't all sunshine and teepees

[jobogee]

my major quarrel with the futurist arguement is that it opperates under the assumption that we've gotten everything right. History will show that in terms of human progress, this is rarely the case. What we need is to take our knowledge base, and refine it. Fiddle and tweak our habbits til they are of benefit to the species, rather than blindly pushing forward.

[TheAwakenedHeretic]

Futurists tend to be prima faccie, while historians are more data specific.

[1HumanKind]

just as modern diet has produced obesity (deterioration of society) , it has produced novel longevity and health (continuing future advancement of society).

there has and will never be an acceleration that does not abate. Clearly. Just as there can and will never be a one sided (only + or -) idea or tech.

our future holds ever greater discrimination (choice). the implications are clear. new ways to suffer and prosper. both oppression and empowerment.

[1HumanKind]

@FullSwag

I guess you have heard of Karl Marx? Do you think his ideas changed a society? (more than one to be sure). All he did was think about society.

Will a society who knows history be different if it did not know history? (both of these men are "historians") For example does our societies knowledge of WWII and the genocides therein make it different from what we would be without that knowledge?

knowing the path we travel is not sufficient but it is necessary.

[happinesson]

funny but with substances debate! history and future molds our present!

[BoredonOccasion]

@FullSwagSyceGame507

They aren't simply "thinking," they are engaging the public. More importantly, though a man may change over the course of his life, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse, it seems obvious to me there is no alternative to thinking long and hard about an issue if you wish to change your behavior in a wise and meaningful way. Phrased differently, how does an unthinking society ever change for the better?

[FullSwagSyceGame507]

i'm not a very intellectual man, i live a simple lifestyle too. so can someone patiently explain to me how these men are productive to society. i don't really see how having men go through IV league schools, get labeled greatness and all they do is sit and think about society. how does that help people? how is thinking about society going to change society?

[NucularRobit]

I don't really get the rub. I have great hope for the future and think history if full of great lessons. Futurist and historian are not necessarily at odds. If a historian and futurist disagree it is completely on them.

[DocWyoming]

@jobogee Futurism in no way believes we've got everything right - that's the domain of dogmatic religion. Futurism follows precisely what you say it should follow: taking our current knowledge and refining it through the scientific method. "Blindly pushing forward' has NOTHING to do with science, technology or futurism. I can't even figure where you got this strawman of futurism from, seeing as you get futurism right in your comment.