Cycles, the Financial Crisis and Common Sense

The conventional wisdom of economists and politicians regarding a financial crisis is no wisdom at all. If they knew anything we wouldn't have a crisis at all. A small number of people like Edward Dewey have understood that market crashes happen as a result of economic cycles. Economic cycles already have present forces that restore a balance when a deviation occurs from the norm. When trillions of dollars are spent to boost the stagnant economy, this only creates greater fluctuations for the future and creates more problems.

A cycle is a like a swing. It swings back without needing a push. Giving it a push just makes it swing higher and come back further next time.

When I suggested to a Harvard economics professor that the conditions prior to the crisis were actually obvious as far as house prices being way too high and lending insanely high his answer was "thanks for your views". Economists cannot debate with reason because they believe in a system that is supposed to allow for all available knowledge of the markets and yet it is quite clear that the entire mortgage market was behaving in a reckless way.

See graph of house prices relative to other prices at http://ray.tomes.biz/b2/index.php/a/2007/04/18/p100 which shows variation was mostly in a narrow range until taking off in the early 2000s. The crash of 2008 was predictable based on the clear 11 year cycle and previous low at 1997.

Category:

Education

Tags:

• raytomes
• financial
• crisis
• economic
• cycles
• edward
• dewey
• ray
• tomes
• swing
• mortgage
• market
• reckless
• institutions
• educational

[miamistorm]

Another excellent lecture on cycle theory as it applies to the current financial crisis.

What do you see the financial markets doing over the next several years? Does cycle theory show another possible depression coming within the next several years? Thank you so very much for your sharing of cycle theory knowledge.

[artynz]

Thank you.

IMO we do not have the conditions for a depression which depends on demographics, search "cause of kondratieff cycle tomes".

I see a recovery over the next 1-2 years and then another big dip about 2012. The problem is more of a burst bubble than a depression and almost entirely a USA problem. Americans have been living way beyond their means for some time and ultimately all those chickens must come home to roost. The rest of the world often gets hurt when the giant tosses in bed.

[thegrandhouseofamen7]

Is it possible to track daily fluctuations in sun activity? I would love to have access to a service or broadcast that can alert us to present and predicted sun activity. Similar to a weather forecast.

[artynz]

Yes it is. Do a search for daily sunspot numbers or solar flares or solar wind or even "space weather" and you will find sites that have data records.

[thegrandhouseofamen7]

The Law of Cycles is the Hermetic Law of Rhythm.

Since Dewey and yourself have accumulated data that reveals the conditions for healthy economy, wouldn't it be prudent to find ways to maintain a healthy oscillation in the economy by way of regulation?

And, if our behavior is dependent on the electromagnetic balance on the earth's surface, should the practice of bio rythms

play a part in self maintenance?

[artynz]

I don't think that we can maintain a perfectly regulated economy. However just recognizing that there are complex external forces acting on the economic system is a start.

"Biorhythms" certainly exist, but unfortunately that word was bastardized from the original sound research by people wanting to sell stuff. I think that self-observation and recording would show cycles in our lives that would be useful to take note of. There are some components that are individual and some that are social.

[artynz]

e.g. human blood is spun in centrifuges when blood is tested and rate at which it settles varies by a large percentage over a few weeks and the movements are largely common around the world.

"Life is a phenomenon. Its production is due to the influence of the dynamics of the cosmos on a passive subject. It lives due to dynamics, each oscillation of organic pulsation is coordinated with the cosmic heart in a grandiose whole of nebulas, stars, the sun and the planet."

- Alexander L Chizhevsky

[ONKJW]

GREAT WORK SIR, KEEP THE VIDEOS COMING!!

ps

do you think gold mining shares are an excellent buy now or over hyped by cycle theorists?

[danielsaun1]

Ray I really appreciate your videos please keep them up. I ran across you after doing a search on the FFSC since some trading/investing buddies mentioned them and Dewey.

[2dubstep5]

your an intelligent guy my friend , but you must understand it is all enginerd research the New World Order

[canadastreetmedia]

The Math seems correct : When compared to incomes and rent values.

A good downpayment still leaves The owner with expensive costs and payments.

un-afforodable housing is unconstitutional and a violation of Human rights, the commercialization of basic human needs and services is a human problem

that is not being regulated properly by the Defacto Puppet Corporate Goverments

[pgm98387]

Sir,

You had some very interesting ideas. Especially the solar sunspot cycles coinciding with economic swings.

Cheers!

[misterwolf29]

great vid but you need to stop hitting your mic