The Demographic Transition Continued_The Developed Countries 2 of 3.wmv

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Uploaded by on Nov 21, 2009

This video expands the discussion of contemporary demographic trends to consider the Developed Nations of North America, Western Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

These countries have either reached or are moving toward the final stage of the Demographic Transition. They face a future of slow or negative population growth.

The video discusses the implications of this situation as relates to the "social contract" (transfer payments from working people to retirees), economic growth prospects, and the texture of social and cultural life.

I argue that the difficulties these nations will face are likely to be as challenging as those facing countries with still rapidly growing populations.

Throughout the video, I reference an important recent book by Richard Jackson and Neil Howe, "The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century" (CSIS, 2008).

Some might be familiar with Neil Howe, co-author of a number of books that integrate demographic and historical perspectives including "Generations" and "The Fourth Turning." I am among those who cannot quite buy into Howe's thesis that there is such a thing as a "generational personality" and that it follows a cyclical pattern. He never fails to produce an interesting book nonetheless.

And for those who are bored by all this talk of demography (as well as those who are not), I recommend a truly great Islay Single Malt at the conclusion of the last part.

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