TEDxTerrytalks 2010 - Kristian Dubrawski - How to Solve a Complex Problem

In the 1970s, various NGOs, including UNICEF tried to solve a problem -- Bangladesh had one of the highest infant mortality rates in the world. 8 million quick and inexpensive wells were drilled, and infant mortality and illness decreased by 50%. The unintended consequence was that 1.6 million wells were drilled into water containing high levels of arsenic, affecting as many as 77 million Bangladeshis. Today, about 1 in 5 deaths (Lancet, 2010) in Bangladesh can be attributed in some degree to this arsenic, which causes lesions, diabetes, and a world of cancers. Worse, no solution is in sight, and the effects are irreversible. The problem just got an order of magnitude more complex.

Rule #1: Don't let the solution be more complex than the original problem.

What is a complex problem? What is complexity? How is nature so complex when there is only 3 forces that govern everything? I'm going to look at some of these questions along with some real world examples, from a professional problem solver (an engineering) point of view. I'll take some examples from my research, quantum physics, Kierkegaard, the Dalai Lama, Cuba literacy programs, Michael Pollan, Polio eradication, OpenCourseWare, and the Treatment Action Campaign.

This talk is about an innovative approach to providing conventional grid-based 230V AC electricity to isolated villages in Tanzania through the use of modern renewable energy services such as solar mini-grid systems. These systems allow villages to generate their own power locally and independently with out the need to connect to the main grid. The delivery model of the service is based on prepaid model that allows villagers with low and variable income to afford basic electrical services.

There various challenges that limit the expansion of the national power grid within African countries like Tanzania. The lack of access to electricity is a major barrier to economic and technological growth. In most rural communities, villagers rely on kerosene lighting. Fuel based lighting is associated with serious dangers including respiratory issues due to indoor pollution, bodily burns due to direct contact and fires that lead to loss of property, injuries, and death.

The use of conventional 230V AC electricity from a sustainable power source help eliminate some of these dangers, allowing children within the households to play, eat, study and sleep in a clean and safe environment. The availability of light within the homes also increases the overall security in residential areas and enables village entrepreneurs to develop new businesses opportunities that weren't possible earlier. Irrigation systems can be installed to increase crop yields, meat/fish/dairy products can be stored for longer periods of time, thus increasing food supplies as less goes to waste. Vendors are be able to sell cold drinks. Heavy machinery, such as mills, can add value to raw crops. Bringing power opens the door to a multitude of business opportunities, and fosters an environment in which creative entrepreneurs can flourish.

(http://terry.ubc.ca/tedxterrytalks)

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Category:

Education

Tags:

• education
• ideas
• UBC
• student. complexity
• global issues
• water

[Sonyoooo3]

for energy like a leach somehow? Then it shall slide down again to make free energy and this repeated it self again and again.

[Sonyoooo3]

Theory can a pipe/tube like strong plastic or metal etc. and inside it there should be a plate like a tube/pipe and at the centre of the tube/pipe inside the tube/pipe it should have a wind turbine system or it simply heated it self and this make free energy but the main outer pipe/tube is like an old sand time glass system that can be turn around. It will click to the at one end and into another it then energy spins the sandtime system so it will go up then it releases it self when its low.

[2012bright]

Fantastic presentation!

[curiousgeorge555]

For me it was a bit of a complex task concentrating on the points he was trying to make. Worth the listen though.