Swine Flu & Economic DEATH (Part 2 of 2)

Swine Flu & Economic DEATH

http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2009/04/27/what-the-swine-flu-panic-m...
How To Really Profit

If you really want to find opportunities relating to the swine flu story, I suggest you do the opposite of what most people are advocating. For instance, consider inverting one particularly brazen and short-sighted call that was reported by Bloomberg: UBS downgrades Mexican stocks from "top pick" to "underweight" because of the swine flu.

Really? An entire country's strongest businesses will be permanently impaired because of this health crisis? Would you write off entire segments of the UK economy if the illness got worse here? Would you sell Unilever (LSE: ULVR)? Ditch Tesco (LSE: TSCO)?

Sure, the Mexican economy is generally more fragile than ours, but most of the big-name firms trading on our exchanges are anything but weak. Beverage and minimart king FEMSA will likely sell fewer soft drinks and beers over the coming weeks. Will Gruma sell fewer tortillas, Industrias Bachoco fewer chicken chunks? Probably.

Will this matter for the long term?
Very Unlikely

If you are investing in strong names for the long term -- and that's how you should be investing -- these are the times when you should be more interested in buying stocks, not less. Flu epidemics are terrible, but they're also normal. So are economic cycles and (in Mexico) the occasional currency panic.

Buying good companies when the headline news is bad is the hardest thing to do (psychologically), but it's the simplest way to buy low. And buying low makes it a lot easier to sell high.

That's the takeaway from the wealthiest investor in the world -- Warren Buffett, who made his fortune buying companies with competitive advantages on the cheap, often during times of uncertainty. Despite recessions, oil shocks, currency convulsions, SARS, and bird flu, Berkshire Hathaway has made him very wealthy.

Over at The Motley Fool's Champion Shares, Maynard Paton loves to take advantage of exactly this kind of short-term market craziness. At times like this, he is more interested in his favourite shares, not less so. If you want to read his most recent recommendations, a free trial is on the house. Click here to get started.

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[donharlan1]

Agree. This fall could be life-changing for the world in general. Buckle up.

[donharlan1]

The body naturally produces 3000 i.u. of vitamin D in 15 minutes or less of sun exposure. So, let's say we spend 4 hours out in the sun: 4 hours * 60 min/hour / 15 mins * 3000 i.u. = 48,000 i.u.

[TeeClover]

Need to be careful, too much vitamin D can be harmful.

[kswatcher]

My prediction is a pandemic this Sept. The swine flu may be recombined with H5N1. The only real way to avoid it will be complete isolation from people. I imagine that the rush to nationalize healthcare, create a national health records system, and the recording of GPS coordinates on every home is all part of this. For the average Joe, money may be better spent on supplies and survival equipment rather than the stock market. The market is nothing but an illusion, and so is our freedom.

[donharlan1]

Read up on the 1918 epidemic. First case in March. Killer epidemic began in August. Recommendations: load up on Vitamin D3. Depending on your current D3 levels, it could take 3 months to get them maxed. 5000 to 10,000 i.u. per day, depending on your mass. If an epidemic occurs in which tens of thousands in the US die, the economy will crash - period.