Property Bust after 14 year Boom- Fred Harrison, part 2

In part 2, I look at price developments in the UK Property market since the 2004 to 2005 pause. After a strong 14 year upswing, the market peaked in August 2007, and is now headed into a severe downturn. How long will it last, this Video provides a look into the future.

Category:

News & Politics

Tags:

• UK
• Property
• Crash
• 2012
• Depression
• 2010
• Peak
• Harrison
• 18
• year
• cycle
• real
• estate
• bubble
• subprime
• documentary

[oxygen777]

you whistle when you speak

[BubbFromGEI]

Its the inferior recording method - sorry abouyt that. I will try to get something better in teh future.

[hkyriazi]

I'm sympathetic to the Georgist cause, but I find such post-hoc discussions weak. With hundreds of gurus out there, some of them must, if only by chance, make correct predictions. That doesn't mean their analyses are correct. I'm especially wary of cycle analyses, and folks who think they can time them precisely, when there are so many variables at work. Maybe he can do it, maybe he can't. Who cares? Let's get on with the stated task of identifying culprits and explaining the solution!

[BubbFromGEI]

You won't find the right culprits unless you understand the mechanisms behind the cycle. I think those who contribute to widening speculative premiums are to blame. And the worst are those who: hype property when it is already expensive, finance property for more than its traditional lending value, lie about their incomes to buy more than they can afford, reduce interest rates to unsustainably low levels to avoid recession... those are the people to blame.

[BubbFromGEI]

Right. Identify the cuprits. Why not just jail everyone named: Alan or Gordon.

[NearAbbeyRoad]

@BubbFromGEI

It is simple.

Profits from increased LAND values are currently creamed off for private gain. Easy gains attract speculators - the evil of the free-market. Stop speculation in LAND and its Resources and boom & busts go. The free-market is then unrigged in a factor of production, LAND. How do you do that? Introduce LAND valuation Taxation.

The values in land were not created by the landowner - created by the community.  A fact of economics.

[steigerpower]

Australia

It's so ironic the property market bounce into action not long home buyer's grant policy had commence which was to design to assist so many into this market which now it's has turn into bubble which has driven up prices outer their reach most first home buyer's.

Socailism never works and the free market will in time take control then real values will be had then.

Why hadn't the Gov just wrote the cheques out to the Realitor's would save alot time as that's who end up with it.

[erictjie]

your theory doesnot apply to australian housing market. the BOOOM is BOOM BOOM. just last month our neighbour sold their property 40% above reserve. AMAZING...

an ugly semi house with 240 sqm sold for aud$980,000. 750sqm 2 storey house sold for $2,24 mil. amazing

our neighbourhood become millionaires hahahahah

[Clipper52a]

By the way, July 28 is my birthday.

[Clipper52a]

From a price perspective, the maximum retracement can be as much as 78.6% of the total real price increase from 1953 to 2010.

[Clipper52a]

Most of us baby boomer cannot even begin to conceive that this is a possibility as the property boom has started before we had the privilege to "reincarnate" from another world.

[Clipper52a]

However, let's not forget that the 21 year decline from a time perstpective is a conservative estimate. Wave 2 decline can take as much as 5/8 of the time (35 years) for the total advances from 1953 - 2010 which is a 57 year advance.

[Clipper52a]

Thus, keeping in line with the concept that cycles do come in different degrees. We can expect that once wave 5 has complete, hence, wave 1 of a larger degree has complete, then we can expect a property bust that will last at least 3/8 of the time it takes for the entire advances from 1953 - 2009 (roughly 56 year cycle). This will put the property price to decline for the next 21 year, similar to what is happenning over at Japan in the 1980's.