Fatal Politics: The Nixon Tapes, Vietnam . . . Episode Four, "Poll-Tested Bombing," Part One

In 1969, Richard Nixon's first year in the White House, the Republican National Committee had a secret poll conducted on Vietnam exit strategies. The most popular strategy was a six-month plan to bomb the North and blockade Haiphong Harbor until Hanoi agreed to a favorable compromise. Nixon announced the bombing and mining of the North on May 8, 1972--exactly six months, minus one day, before the election.

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[fatalpolitics]

In his latest book, "The Rebellion of Ronald Reagan," James Mann quotes from Richard Nixon's account of a 1987 meeting with President Reagan:

I pointed out that many people felt my popularity had gone up because of my trip to China. In fact, it had improved only slightly. What really sent it up was the bombing and mining of Haiphong.

[fatalpolitics]

The Soviets as well. Brezhnev alluded to it at the Moscow Summit in May 1972.

You can (I think) access all the declassified Kissinger telcons through the Digital National Security Archives. Happy hunting!

[fatalpolitics]

It turns out that Nixon was more interested in looking tough in front of the American voters. To make his "decent interval" exit strategy work, he let the Communists know that if they took over South Vietnam he would not intervene -- as long as they waited a year or two after he withdrew the last American troops. While he was telling Americans that the bombing and mining would achieve peace with honor, he was secretly negotiating a deal that was neither.

[fatalpolitics]

He waited until the most politically opportune moment to implement the bombing and mining plan -- six months, minus one day, before the 1972 election. And Kissinger did tell him later that year that the day Nixon announced the bombing and mining, May 8, 1972, was the day he won the 1972 election.

[fatalpolitics]

Recall that the most popular exit strategy called for bombing and blockading the North for six months to get a compromise settlement.

[fatalpolitics]

The secret poll the RNC commissioned to test the popularity of alternative Vietnam exit strategies was clearly important to Nixon. We know it was especially important to him because he kept it in his executive office building desk -- it was still there when he resigned the presidency in August 1974.

[centurion180ad]

All of this conveniently forgets that capital War Criminal Kissinger /personally/ sabotaged the Paris peace talks of LBJ that could have ended the conflict on exactly the same terms, before Nixon was ever elected.