A forecast for the 21st century: George Friedman. ANU, May09

George Friedman offers a forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.
Drawing on history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years, Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era - with changes in store, including:
- The US-Jihadist war will conclude - replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.
- China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.
- A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.
- Technology will focus on space - both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.

George Friedman is the founder and chief intelligence officer of STRATFOR, which analyses and forecasts trends in world affairs. He is an internationally recognised expert in security and intelligence issues. He is also the author of several books, including The Future of War. The Next 100 Years will be released in March 2009, and George will be touring in May 2009. He has been invited as a guest to the 2009 Sydney Writers' Festival.

This lecture is part of the Toyota-ANU Public Lecture Series 2009. Presented by Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, the Department of International Relations and the ANU International Relations Society.

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[KarlMartell732]

His mimic reminds me on GW Bush.

[09smitel]

people need to remember that Friedman is not saying that these things will happen; all he is saying that is if historical patterns continue as they have, these are the events that will most likely happen.

[gellertmag]

I have read his two books and I dont I dont agree his opininons on turkey as a power,turkey is not the leader of islamic world,arabs are the leader, turkey has lots of problems with kurdish separatism, its in no way to be a super power, iran maybe,china is a super regional power,and mexico and other hispanics countries invade usa by with population in 2050, that is where he is true...

[matThaHatter]

@LCTesla OK, I apologize. I thought I'd heard enough to answer you, but I hadn't reached the important bit.

Again, I THINK the answer is that although China makes and sells tons of stuff, they BUY MOST OF THE MATERIALS, & SELL MOST OF THE PRODUCTS to the US, Australia, UK, etc. If we simply stop buying & selling w/them, we can bring their economy to a halt.

Hope that helps.

[ooshgasm]

@thunderballacks How would China win a war with Japan if it had no navy to launch troops or planes from?

[SkullKing11841]

@KarlMartell732 Yeah there both from Texas haha 

[thunderballacks]

"I'm not predicting here anything except stating that the second largest power, economy in the world with the largest navy in asia is a great power. And a country like china without that sort of navy and not nearly as big economically, is a lesser power."

Ok so China is a great power now then. And it will have the navy soon enough. Navy or no navy, China would win a fight with Japan.

[kentucy9999]

I read The Next Decade which I thought was brilliant. Of course everything he foresees isn't going to come true exactly as he foresees it but his reasoning is based in rational and coherent thought and not any emotionalism. The United States was and remains by far the strongest country on the planet and likely will remain so for the future. There are many reasons for this including our dominant military, complete control of the sea lanes and because of our "physical" isolation also.

[LCTesla]

what i don't get is how he first claims that the cost of labor is going to skyrocket and then dismisses China, of all places, as a major candidate for being a superpower. wtf?

[ClarksonsinUSA]

Todays drones in Afghanistan and Iraq,will shape the world of tomorrow in homes and in factories through civilian applications in the years ahead..

[boxerguy1982]

Population drop? Yeah right, by 2050 I bet you we are going to have at least 8 billion people on this planet.