Data versus Price

buy the dip

Category:

Education

Tags:

• ExplainEverything
• explain everything
• explain
• everything
• ipad
• education

[BKTraderFx]

Feel free to post your trades and executions like I do and then I would be happy to consider your ideas. Liquidity is indeed a consideration but can change in a heartbeat if newsflow changes. Its news that drives liquidity not the other way around.

[phibess]

imho, the best thing to do in this case was to fade the stop hunt. Once they cleared the stops above previous highs (where the stops obviously were) price collapsed as it usually does. Works most of the time regardless of 'round numbers' - costs too much money to again drive price back up against that bearish order flow (trapped bulls covering). Liquidity is the key in this business and they know how to get it. Hence most breakouts are fakeouts. Just watch where the stops are, don't get fooled.

[BKTraderFx]

@phibess Except in this case they drove through 3225 by the weekend, so fading breakouts would have been disastrous. Generally a big mistake most retail traders make

[phibess]

@BKTraderFx

Not sure why it would have been disastrous- that set-up occurred on Wed. Who’d have held the position until the w/k without locking in some profits or at least moving to BE? As for fading breakouts - price has to be in a range/consolidation. Even then one shouldn't fade as it’s breaking out, that’s plain silly, you sell (or buy) only when it breaks out but fails to close above (in this case) range. Here you would have sold around 1.3030, with drawdown 3pips, price dropped 100pips.

[BKTraderFx]

@phibess That is very much Monday quarterbacking my friend. I can find you millions of examples where price fails, triggers an opposite move and then just a quickly reverses. Your analysis is all backward looking whereas mine is all forward looking. Note that at the time of making of the video I am bearish and price collapses further down. It's very easy to say what you would do once chart prints. The hard part is figuring out the right edge of the chart.

[phibess]

Well, it wasn’t backward looking when I took that set up on Wed which is why I responded. If you think in terms of orderflow dynamics & liquidity you will know why this happens so often. Re failed set-ups, nothing works 100%, it’s all about location and experience. Btw good luck with trying to explain every move with news. They’re many players in the market playing diff. games trying to outsmart each other. Positive news is often used to get liquidity/buyers when they need to dump big positions.

[axeexcess]

Great video. Please keep these short video clips coming.