Intrade on ABC
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All Comments (34)
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@therock0603 I noticed but just after I posted the comment :) this will teach me to be more carefully next time.
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@DaniOcean My comment is from 2 months ago when it suddenly shot up from 15% to over 40%.
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@therock0603 it's only $2.60(26%), actually I was surprised how low the price is.
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@AliceInWonderlandSyn yeah, because we know that markets work that way. People short Microsoft stocks then they bomb Redmond in order to make profit. Oh wait, this works only in Hollywood movies... fuck, I better buy back those MS stocks...
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@bluepurplegreen758 HAHA!! Nice spin on it :)
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@AliceInWonderlandSyn Or you could say that people would choose to defend a particular city because they shorted the event... :)
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That's so stupid to use a form of gambling to try and predict where a terrorist attack will happen because what may happen is that people bet on a particular city, then in order to make a profit, you may end up with people attacking that city that "in-trade" predicted in order to make money!
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The whole poll the audience comment about the audience gets it right 95% of the time is because the audience is polled on much easier questions. The call the expert gets it right 2/3 of the time because the questions asked then are generally much more difficult! That man isn't much of a statistician!
2 months ago 2
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@sfbuck415 lol, got 'em!
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To comprehend how accurate Intrade is consider the 2010 elections. Of all avaialble markets trading on the site; every one 'predicted' was a winner but for Murkowski the write-in candidate. U.S. credit cards are no longer allowed. To move the numbers real money must be used . Partisans or idealogues have no play. Bottom line: Accuracy has no bias.
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the guy makes some mistakes. first the instrument is a contract not a share. second each contract is valued at 10 dollars not 1 dollar. finally there has to be liquidity for the market to have any predictive value. most contracts on intrade, except for the presidential election, have very little volume and thus cannot be used as an accurate gage of sentiment.
ojmoss 3 years ago 9
The reason why Intrade is accurate is that people put their money on the line.
Thatmakessense356 5 months ago 3