US Debt is way too high, better to Default
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Now, Oli, I hope you have read all my other comments before reading this one. And I apologize for loading this up with all of what I had to say, but I had a lot to say to explain the system to you and the outfall it will have.
Here is my personal take on fixing any other problems we have, look at what the dems have or ask a dem what their proposal is and hope you can find alternatives among them and pick the best one you can agree with, because that is all you will have when this is done with.
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It will fail, because they need to blackmail or pay off the entire FBI and many other agencies including U.S. Marshals and I doubt they will succeed at that. So... it will backfire and they will still suffer hugely.
There is no true good way the Republicans can get out of this, but they had themselves to blame for it. They should have went left of center when the Dems decided to go right of center, just like the two parties decided to do in the 60s when it came to civil rights.
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Well actually there are two other alternatives.
Businesses like Microsoft and BP hire assassins to kill off the Republican or the Republican Tea Party Candidates, thus kill the Tea Party with possibly the Koch Brothers, and then allow the Dems to raise the debt ceiling to allow their companies to continue living.
That or the Republicans will fake their own assassinations, so that they can blame it on the Dems while the Dems raise the debt ceiling. However... that will probably fail.
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So as I had said, Oli. It is a grim outlook for the Republican Party and the Tea Party and there is nothing they can do about it.
Fail to beat him in a second term or die off forever and fail to beat him in a second term or they can try to kill him and still die off and fail to beat Biden, who will end up being more socialist than Obama
The only other alternative I can conceive of is that Obama becomes the one unwilling to make a compromise, but that will never happen. Because he is a dem.
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They could try to kill Obama, but all Independents and Swing-voters will know it was Republican doing even if it was just set up as some fringe idiot and all intentions of calling it a conspiracy is thrown out the window, just due to the anti-conspiracy nature we have put ourselves upon. It is still going to be felt that way as a betrayal and no one will vote for a Republican. Especially, since Republicans won't be able to put in themselves to not be seen as the bad guys if Obama does die.
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What you are going to see is a complete end to the Tea Party, Libertarianism, Anti-Socialists, and the Republican Party. That is unless, the Republicans actually do come to an agreement with Obama on raising the debt ceiling, but that is not going to happen. Because the Reps don't want Obama to win a second term, which is what it will cost them in making any agreement with Obama. Even though that also means they won't die off, when the alternative is their extinction.
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follow the same trend and instead just pulls further to one side, it is doomed for failure and its own demise.
The Whig party ultimately died because it had this huge left swing entity called Abolitionism, which ultimately prevented it from making a working compromise with the Pro-Slavery Dems. Even though the Dems also had stubborn far right people, like Calhoun. It was during its time, a centrist party. This destroyed the Whig Party, but allowed a new left-center party, Republicans to emerge
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But lets go back to reality, so I can explain what will happen over what is going to happen. As in how the market will end on its own vs. how socialist Obama will prevent such a fall and thus end any further bickering against socialism. This is the goal of the Democratic Party and what Republicans stupidly walk themselves into.
It is the Republicans own fault for being so stupid. In a two-party system, when one party moves from the left or the right to the other side and the other doesn't...
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Unemployment leads to more unemployment. What would resolve it is a new market interest, but there isn't one, because businesses are solely fix on trying to save what little assets they do have, which won't be able to the save. And what makes this the same or worse than the great depression is the fact that it will be global, because of the global integration of businesses.
The ultimate conclusion of no-government economics during such a catastrophe is an absolute end to the market system.
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With huge unemployment means as I had said, cuts in the purchases on certain goods, especially renewable goods, because people will try to save or reuse and keep their old goods rather than buy new ones. No new cars will be bought. No new TVs. No new computers. No new house purchases. Business won't try to make new investments, which will hurt businesses like contracting firms that build houses or buildings. So you have even more unemployment.
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With further unemployment, there will be less people able to afford to buy new cars, houses, ect... which will harm the housing market as well as car dealerships and ect and they have to make cuts.
As you can see this is a domino effect. One Business will affect another and another, because they all hold stock in each other. And with each business being affected it will have to lay off more and more people. Massive unemployment has its own huge negative consequence, because...
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Microsoft has stocks in the United States Government. A lot of stocks. Billions of dollars worth in stocks. If the government defaults. It loses those investments. It has to make HUGE cuts. In the net worth of how much money it has lost. But... McDonalds, Toyota, NewsCorp, and Cox holds huge stocks in Microsoft. So they lose their assets, because Microsoft has to make cuts to compensate for its loses. But this continues, because other companies hold assets with those companies and so on.
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Oli, if you want to know why the government default is a bad thing, you first have to understand our economic and market system and just how businesses function with their investments and how those investments affect them.
1) All companies are invested in one another. The bigger the investments and the more interconnected those investments are, the bigger the losses are if all the threshold of those investment (at where they stand and come to) defaults.
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Then you also as I had said have other companies make cuts, because that is what happens when you have a sudden lost of revenues, which is what happens when you invest money of your own into another company or into the United States government as well as companies who hold their own money into the United States government and that when it defaults, you lose all of that money. Because it is no different than when a business defaults. And with everyone invested in each other, global catastrophe.
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Defaulting on our debt won't just hurt their markets, but ours too. Simply because it is not judge our debt we are defaulting on, but also our paid revenue to all or most government programs, which hold their own revenue in the stock system and other companies their own stocks in those programs. So if the United States does default you end up all all those companies making compensations for their losses when the United States defaults, which will be a lot of our own getting unemployed.
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I think the best way to explain it is to understand it in how we already understand the market. One giant web. Everything is interconnected, because everyone shares stocks with another and through banks, which will dissolve too if they fall short on their revenue. The best means to harm a web is to attack where the web is held most strongly and that is the United States government and its huge debt, which actually serves a financial importance with markets in China.
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You would think that would be the end of it, but all those same firms are interconnected with other firms, this is because other businesses own stocks in them. So they are going to pull their assets out in the anticipation of shortcomings due to the fact those companies as I had said before will have to lay of workers by huge numbers to compensate for the lack of international interest being drawn to them. But that is not all. You also have the effect this will have on banks too.
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In today's economy, almost all super massive companies like BP, Exon-Mobile, AIG, Sony, Honda, and numerous other industries or firms also hold stocks not just in other businesses but also in the United States government. If the United States government defaults, all those companies (thousands worldwide) will pull out their stocks and investments. Some of those investments are also tied to U.S. contractors. And when they pull out of those businesses, huge unemployment will take place.
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Well lets start off with how the global market system works and how the great depression had occurred. The Great Depression had occurred because America just after the stock market crash had began utilizing a strict protectionist ploy which all other countries responded by doing the same thing. No international trade interactions took place and as a result all companies had to make harsh cuts if not fall into default and dissolve. That is why so many people (1/3rd of U.S. population) unemployed
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But this is a much less substantial win than having the Republicans continue to decline on making a compromise and a default happens, which people will blame Republicans for and elect Democrats to replace all their available seats with. Which will allow much more Socialist programs to pass, which will save the economy for a huge depression and since this would be the second time such Keynesian Economics was proven successful, it will destroy all negative views towards socialism.
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But remember this is the fate of the Republican Party, so long as they don't unanimously come to a compromise with the democrats, but that will also harm them, since it will make the President look strong in getting Republicans who held such a firm stance in not making any compromise to ultimately make one. I mean it will also hurt him in isolating the far left, who will probably vote green during the 2012 election. But the right to left (non extreme on either end) will vote for Obama.
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And as I had said, default is a bad thing, much worse when you in our position. We are not too big to fail. We are too big that we shouldn't fail. The consequences can be incalculable.
But remember, the democrats are pushing for a compromise and the republicans are not. They are pushing for a default. Not all of them, but the tea party ones are. And that is going to make them look bad, since that will very harshly harm the economy and all economists know this, that is why they are panicking.
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So what Obama is going to do is continue to appeal to the right, by moving more to the right. People to the left or center would continue to vote for him or democrats, because that is the only true alternative to a more extreme rightest party that will end up be the fate of the Republicans. But the most beautiful part is that as Barack Obama continues to try and compromise with Republicans, it will make Republicans look like the bad guys, because they are the ones pushing for a default.
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Ultimately, there is going to be a default, unless all the markets aim at hiring assassins to kill all the tea party republicans. And trust they will try to since a default will mean catastrophe to any business. But nonetheless, Barack Obama's goal is to destroy the Republican Party and the best means to accomplish that without derailing the democratic system which ingenious might I mind you is to continue pushing the Republican Party to the right and isolating them from swing voters.
i am sorry to say that u don't fully understand the consequences of US default on the global financial system. The present system is all about confidence if u lose confidence all things falls apart. there will be chaos and panic all over the world
Propcuser 7 months ago
@Propcuser ok well then explain it to me
oli36999 7 months ago