Myth: The World is Running Out of Oil (Peak Oil Theory)

20/20 John Stossle makes the case that the peak oil theory is a Myth.

We have enough oil and other carbon based fuels for hundreds of years.

Category:

Education

Tags:

• Peak Oil
• Myths
• Running out of Oil
• vuclan750l

[NewUser21111]

Actually oil is used for EVERYTHING!!! from making consumer goods, to pesticides, transportation, plastics etc. The Tar Sands sound good but they are very expensive and in a capitalist economy where growth is needed everyday even a drop in oil supply will hurt the economy.

[Vulcan750L]

@NewUser21111

"Expensive" is a relative term. Tar sands sands costs about $5 to $10/bbl. Deep sea drilling costs about $70/bbl. "Expensive", compared to what?

As long as the cost of extraction is more than $10 below the market price for crude, it is economically viable. It doesn't really matter what the cost of extraction is, we pay the same market price for both "cheap" and "expensive" oil.

[showmeyourtonsils]

1. It takes 2 barrels worth of energy to get 3 barrels worth out of tar sands, turning that 100 years worth of energy into 30 years, and that's without an increase in consumption.

2. The Wikipedia article on Canadian oil reserves also includes tar sands in the estimates, even though it isn't oil, but the article still shows tar sand production peaking at 2020, and that's if we can still continue to refine it after oil is depleted.

[Vulcan750L]

@showmeyourtonsils

1. It DOES NOT take 2 barrels worth of energy to get 3 barrels worth out of tar sands. It's a 1 to 3 ratio.

The energy used for extraction and processing comes from natural gas or coal, not from burning oil. So no oil has to be used to extract oil.

Only about 1% of oil goes to making electricity in the US and is being phased out of energy production.

Oil is primarily used for transportation and is currently being replaced by electric cars and other alternatives.

[Vulcan750L]

@showmeyourtonsils

2. The Wikipedia article on Canadian oil reserves DOES NOT show tar sands peaking in 2020. It shows that tar sands production will increase till AT LEAST 2020 using conservative estimates based on CURRENT prices and CURRENT technology.

There are 2 more massive oil reserves in the form of shale greater or equal to the Canadian Tar Sands in the US that has barely been touched yet. It wasn't even mentioned in this video. (Green River Formation and the Bakken Oil Fields)

[4aSteadyStateEconomy]

Stossel's ilk ignores the difference between hypothetical reserves and ones that are AFFORDABLE to extract, i.e. with high enough net-energy.

U.S. kerogen shale is a classic example, with its nil EROEI. The wet Bakken shale can be fracked, but still has low EROEI vs. crude oil.

Anyone who looks at the flow-rate production curves of fossil fuels can't help noticing how many fields have already peaked. It's historical fact, yet it still draws denial. Some people just can't handle evidence.

[Vulcan750L]

@MiranUT

No. It's because most people like yourself never bother to do any of your own research and readily buy into popular myths and misunderstandings.

Yes. The AVERAGE cost of oil production is going up because more and more of the "expensive" oil is replacing the dwindling cheap oil.

But, "expensive" is a relative term. Even the most expensive oil (deep ocean) is only about $70/bbl, far below $100/bbl.

At $100/bbl, oil is cheaper than water at $2.38/gal.

[MiranUT]

@claudelebel55 - Probably because most of us can smell BS. Notice the edits: One guy saying "We will never run out of oil". What was cut? "But the cost of extracting oil is going up, so prices at the gas pump will too." No one wants to hear this. Most Americans just want to live in their fantasy debt world of artificially elevated lifestyles.

[Vulcan750L]

@NewUser21111

Yes, I know. But that is mostly from the byproducts and "leftovers" from making gasoline and diesel fuels. Many different types of fuels and byproducts are derived from the same barrel of oil.

I didn't want to get too technical and get bogged down on the details and confusing the point of the argument.

[Vulcan750L]

@failblorg

I don't know what statement you want me to explain.

The oil supply is not infinite. But it will be a very long time before we run out of it. We will be off of oil long before we come close to running out of it.

I'm confused by your comments. Now, it sounds like you are pro drilling. I'm not against drilling for more oil, and I'm not against developing shale and tar sands.

[Vulcan750L]

@PontiousPilates

All governments DO NOT subsidize the oil industry.  In Europe, they tax the hell out of it. There, they have no interest in keeping the price of gasoline cheap. Do you just make up shit as you go along?

I can't find any info on European oil subsidies, probably cause there is none.

The energy cost of extracting oil from shale and tar sands has not gone up and will improve with better technology and innovation. It is still a 1 to 3 ratio.