Canada's Worst Job Loss in 2 Years Due to Global Crisis 2011

http://www.peoplestandup.ca/td
Ouch. Or as chief economist Avery Shenfeld at CIBC World Markets put it: "Suddenly the jobs market doesn't look quite so rosy in Canada."

It sure doesn't. After a year in which employment growth remained inexplicably strong through thick and thin, it came thumping back to earth in October with the loss of 54,000 jobs. That's the biggest monthly decline since early 2009, when we were in the middle of a recession.

As a result, national unemployment ticked up to 7.3 per cent from 7.1 per cent in September. There were particularly big jumps in Quebec, to 7.7 per cent from 7.3, and Ontario, to 8.1 per cent from 7.6.

On the other hand, the details of this report suggest that it's more likely to reflect a temporary soft spot in economic growth than the beginning of a long slump.

The most likely scenario is that Canada - blessed by the presence of plentiful oil and the absence of a housing crisis - has finally seen its unusually strong economy dragged down by faltering exports to the U.S.

Given this, growing signs of a return to health south of the border provide reason to believe that Canadian job creation will climb back to a healthier pace over the coming year.

When we look back at Canada's volatile monthly job numbers over this year, we can see a sharp decline in the trend of employment growth. Over the past three months, average job growth was flat. By comparison, the first three months of this year showed robust average growth of 27,600.

The major problem is in Canada's export-sensitive manufacturing industry, where the number of jobs has plunged by 71,900 over the past two months.

Ironically, although this is far from a happy development, it actually gives reason for some optimism. If the problem is mainly exports to the U.S., then any sign of an upturn south of the border should signal an opportunity for Canada's factory sector to rebound, suggests Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Happily, that seems to be what we're seeing. The latest signals out of the American economy actually do suggest that there's a modest upturn gaining momentum in that country.

True, the headlines say that monthly U.S. job growth remains weak, but in the background, there are strong signals that the initial employment reports are underestimating the strength of U.S. hiring.

For example, the initial job numbers for August and September were unimpressive, but have since been revised upward by a total of more than 100,000 jobs, and this isn't the first time this has happened.

There seems to be a recent tendency for the U.S. to underestimate job growth in the highly publicized initial reports, then correct upward, notes Paul Ferley, assistant chief economist at the Royal Bank.

This makes him significantly more optimistic than he would be if he took the initial reports seriously.

As well, unemployment in the U.S. ticked down to 9.0 per cent from 9.1 per cent in October. This statistic, based on a separate survey from the one used to count employment gains, indicates an improvement in the tone of the American job market.

Indeed, the survey that produces the unemployment rate is now suggesting that the U.S. could have created something like one million jobs over the past three months, the strongest performance since 2006.

All this suggests that yesterday's mediocre October employment report, which counted only 80,000 new jobs, could well be bumped up when the U.S. Commerce Dept. takes a second look next month.

As a little bonus, even the uninspiring October job report includes a boost in the average factory workweek and the first expansion in American manufacturing jobs in three months, a positive sign for Canadian factories.

It also included a gain in temporary jobs, which tends to foreshadow increases in permanent employment.

The bottom line in all these job numbers is this:

First, Canada's job market has hit a significant soft spot and it wouldn't be surprising if the unemployment rate drifts up a little more in the coming months.

Second, U.S. employment, which has been the big obstacle to stronger growth in our key export market, seems finally to be finding its feet.

It could still be knocked down by some new shock, but underlying momentum is picking up.

That holds out the hope for a rebound in Canada's job market next year

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[jaworskij]

I've always liked Terry Milewski's reporting, going back to The National from 1982.

[dan832]

Whats it like for plumbers and the utilities industry for getting jobs? I'm qualified in the UK as a apprentice trained plumber and domestic gas- with college certs etc- considering giving it ago- I have family Toronto who live there permanentally. Its a dream I've had for a while to move over just wondering Ifs its the wrong time? any thoughts- I would be prepared to do other things other than my trade.

[metaRising]

The numbers are choppy. They go up and down all the time. They said this themselves. The MEDIA said it was AWEFUL. But what do the numbers look like from a greater perspective? Quite small. All this talk of businesses being more cautious HAS THE EFFECT of making businesses more cautious. The recession is something 'they' want to happen and the media and fear porn like this is a tool.

[stopandstare52]

great channel.

[Neurolanis]

Hahaha FUNNY! Harper still denies that we are in a serious recession (or one at all) here in Canada! It's due to a lack of confidence due to the European Market! LOL Funny, funny man..

[upstart1234ify]

This is crazy! Yet Immigration is still increasing!!!

[evey35]

I am 34 with a college diploma, university education (no degree), and years of experience in many various areas. In the last year I've been employed for a grand total of 4 months. The employment was only part-time at $10/hr. I really enjoyed that job until my slacker manager decided she didn't like my attempt at actual WORK and fired me in July without giving a reason. I finally started another job after sending out 6-8 resumes a week...lo and behold, it's another part-time job at minimum wage.

[LocalScumBag123]

The G20 conference would of been a great place for an IED!

[eachtem]

It is a crisis, but Canada is the sheep capital contry of the world. People do NOT give a rats ass about their nieghbor or their family member in some cases, and I came from one of those horrible evil famly's with an evil witch mom ande dad. I hate them so much too.

[StealthEmerald]

no joke - i cannot find a job...period!! in this new world it's all about who's ass you know or who's ass you kiss...another area that seriously needs an improvement or revolutionary new way for fairness:) At this point we operate a new lottery..the job lottery. Lost my job due to corruption within CIBC...would have had a winning lawsuit, but our society lets you go after justice only if you have $120,000 to spend on legal fees and of course years to give to it, bad for health too these fights:(