BABIP: The Luck Dragons, Part 2

In addition to dealing with variations in LOB%, pitchers may also have bad luck in the form of BABIP variations. BABIP -- or batting average on balls in play -- tends to stay very near .300 for pitchers. When it strays much higher than .300, a pitcher is usually unlucky. Likewise, as a BABIP approaches .000, a pitcher is usually increasingly lucky.

Category:

Sports

Tags:

• BABIP
• baseball
• sabermetrics
• pitching
• sports
• statistics

[aviators18]

Except even if Joe fan could make contact at the same rate MLBers do, they couldn't hit doubles at the same rate, and their grounders would turn into more outs. Just look at pitcher's babips when hitting in the NL, far worse than league average.

I like these movies, but they really do oversimplify, to a fault, these ideas.

[homebodywithalaptop]

@aviators18 Yeah, it's true that Joe Fan probably would hit -- at best -- like a pitcher, his distribution of line drives being much smaller. If I could do the video over again (and I guess I can), I would approach the topic from a different angle.

[vorosmc]

What's amazing is how precisely he nailed what my late 90s wardrobe looked like.

[homebodywithalaptop]

@vorosmc :) I'll admit: it took a lot of Google Image Searching to find you in your traditional wizardry clothes.

[buttfaceman]

So, essentially what you're saying is, we need more appearances from Joe Fan. I can get behind that.

[homebodywithalaptop]

@buttfaceman Exactly! Nobody know my true talent level, so the MLB should pay me millions of dollars until we're absolutely certain I suck at baseball!

[MrTrunk3rs]

what i don't get is how when a batter has a babip of over 300 then they are lucky, then wouldn't it be impossible to hit over 300 without being lucky because unless you never strike out, you babip is higher then your avg.

[homebodywithalaptop]

@buttfaceman Excellent observations, buttfaceman. Joe Fan would probably have a .100 BABIP or something nearer to .000, unless his contact included line drives at a normal MLB rate. So IF he could catch an MLB pitch, then presumably he would be better than Joe Fan.

So, in real life, Joe Fan probably has a BABIP closer to that of a pitcher (.200) or a turd (.000). Also, doubles may not be out of the question for Joe Fan -- if he hits a grounder that sneaks by the corner infiedler.

[buttfaceman]

I too have sent these to people in hopes that they appreciate stats and finer humor. I have a few problems with this video though:

1. No flute/recorder

2. Would Joe Fan really have a .300 BABIP if he were somehow able to connect on a major league pitch? Personally, with my bat speed and hitting skills, I'd say every hit I made would either be a weak pop up on the infield or a dribbler to the pitcher. A double is out of the question. A single is far from a 30% certainty. Am I missing something?

[homebodywithalaptop]

@JayHorn1 Wow! I'm so glad you both enjoy and use them! With respect to the Luck Dragons, we've still got batter's BABIP and HR/FB. But first, I'm working on a wOBA movie.