TPMtv: Potomac Post-Game

Your Daily Politics Video Blog: With Barack Obama's big wins last night in Maryland and Virginia (DC too but not many delegates there), it's looking really hard for Hillary Clinton to take back the lead among pledged (i.e., voted for delegates). We run the numbers and discuss the implications.

Category:

News & Politics

Tags:

• politics
• video
• blog
• election08
• potomac
• primary
• barack
• obama
• hillary
• clinton
• ohio
• texas
• NextNewNetworks

[badgrammar]

it comforts me.

[robtran]

I think Hillary will take both Texas and Ohio, but not by margins significant enough to even keep the delegate count close. After that, it's just a matter of time before Obama is declared either the front-runner or the candidate.

[houserave]

well because most of us liberals are sick of Hillary and Bill and would like a leader that we can see as truthful and.....alive!

[intarwebzz]

i've seen in the veracifier youtube comments other people (aka "some people," "they," "them," etc) criticizing tpm for O-bias. i've seen the same criticism for msnbc in the liberal blogosphere comments sections (dailykos i think). i'm not saying it's the only opinion out there; i'm just saying..

[PreetSG]

No, it is now 77. Clinton has 234 and Obama has 157. I agree with your point but then shouldn't the super-delegates vote after the public has voted? It would look bad for them to be for 1 person but their voters back another.

[codediporpal]

Actually, as of today it's only a 114 SD lead, and less than half of the unpledged and superdelegates have taken a stand. Many that did for Clinton did so when it looked like her nomination was inevitable and may change their minds, especially if it means ignoring the voices of the voters and supremely pissing them off, which is *exactly* what will happen.

[codediporpal]

No. Hillary will fight tooth and nail and try to take the nomination any way she can. I'd bet money on it. She's already moved to have Michigan delegates seated, even though Obama was not even on the ballot there. (She feels sorry for them that they were 'disenfranchised' - yeah right)

[PreetSG]

Look, I want Obama to win. I would love what you say to be true and but the reality is that Obama is 119 or about 12 million people by popular vote but still lags behind Hillary by 85 Super-delegate votes where his friends were... He heads now to Ohio and Texas where he is going to face the tide... I really hope he can make it though...

[moejardines]

Those poll leads of 17% in Ohio and 10% in Texas are awful for Hillary. Barack is going to whip some major butter in Wisconsin and have the momentum of a cannonball, erasing the 10% in Texas, and cutting seriously the lead in Ohio. If its simply a wash in TX and OH, Obama wins handily.

So, for VP, I like Richardson, but I'm thinking Obama-Dodd would be a great ticket to countreract McCain's military record. Dodd's a vet, and a mensch.

[Danielspamjam]

Preet,

What you forget is that superdelegates are not bound by any promises they make previous to the convention. The reason he didn't say it is because it's like arguing that water is as solid as steel. That situation is 100% fluid. Don't forget that the Superdelegates, unlike what you've heard, will usually follow the popular winner nominee like lemmings for the good of the party.

[JonStewart4President]

There will be pitchforks and mayhem if Hillary's campaign tries to take the nomination if they end up behind in either pledged delegates and/or popular vote. I have enough faith in Hillary that if it comes down to it this scenario, that she won't do this and focus on the good of the Party and the country by helping beat John McCain.

[PreetSG]

What Josh doesn't say is that there is no way Obama is going to beat Hillary with her super-delegate lead. She leads him by 200 delegates in that field. There is just no way Obama is gong to get the 201 delegate lead to beat her... He currently leads her by 119 pledged delegates and this would approximately drop to about 80 after Texas and Ohio... Just not enough for Obama... Sad that he is the people's choice but would not be the party's choice...