Monty Hall Problem

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say number 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say number 3, which has a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door number 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?

Note: The host will always show you a goat, regardless of your initial pick.

Link to my 100 door simulation:
http://www.mediafire.com/?jwvz3djqznz

Link to 3 door simulation:
http://www.mediafire.com/?tudm2rrmzjj

Idiot List:
===========
http://www.youtube.com/user/jl45000019
http://youtube.com/user/spammaplease
http://www.youtube.com/user/terrydeannelson
http://www.youtube.com/user/hxnncht

Category:

Education

Tags:

• Monty
• Hall
• Problem
• Goat
• Car
• Door

[kmorgan26]

@eeyoreeeyoreuhoh I am either going to be struck by lightning today, or I am not.

One of those will certainly be true, but they are not equally likely. There is a much higher chance that I will not be struck. You are right that there are 1 of 2 possibilities (car or goat) but they are not equally likely. If you can't see that, you're just not very bright I'm afraid. That's not an insult, it's just true.

[eeyoreeeyoreuhoh]

@kmorgan26 "...there is a 1 in 3 chance of you picking the correct one."

Oh but there is also a 1 in 2 chance that you have picked the correct one. The door you picked is either the correct one or its not. You won't know until its revealed by Monty Hall. This too is an undeniable fact

[kmorgan26]

@eeyoreeeyoreuhoh Do you not believe in the concept of probability? If there are 3 of something, and only one is right...and you pick one then there is a 1 in 3 chance of you picking the correct one. If you don't believe that, then you're just denying a fact. In the game, you pick door #1, then there is a 1 in 3 chance of you being correct. This isn't my opinion, it's the way it is.

[eeyoreeeyoreuhoh]

@kmorgan26 ...the car does not have any "chance" of being behind a certain door. It IS behind a certain door. The door which it is behind is not my concern. I must commit to one. Now that I've committed to a door, since there is nothing the host will do that can be construed as a hint that the door I've committed to is incorrect or that the door I haven't committed to is correct, I have no rational reason to de-commit from the door I have committed to.

[eeyoreeeyoreuhoh]

@kmorgan26 the chance that the door I chose has a car behind it DOES NOT depend on the chance that the door I chose has goat #1 or goat #2 behind it. In this regard, it would be accurate to say that I don't believe the chance that I chose the door with the car behind it is 1/3.

[kmorgan26]

@eeyoreeeyoreuhoh You asked me to quote something I disagreed with and I did that. It's the only time I quoted you so it will be easy to tell.

I'm asking you to clarify your position more clearly and you are avoiding doing that. Let me step through it one step at a time. Do you believe that when you first make a pick, that the chance that you made the correct choice is 1/3?

[eeyoreeeyoreuhoh]

@kmorgan26 I don't suppose why that is. I don't have to. My point argues quite well to conclusion of itself. Moreover, you don't and haven't disagreed with any point I have made about this matter. I can't quite see what your opposition is to what I've said if it is not opposition to any point I have made.

[kmorgan26]

@eeyoreeeyoreuhoh Run that program 100 times and stay every time and you'll find that you only win 1/3 of the time. If you play it 100 times and switch every time, then you win 2/3 of the time. Why do you suppose that is?

[eeyoreeeyoreuhoh]

@kmorgan26 yes.