The Old Farmer's Almanac has hitched its winter forecast to the climate-change train: ``Everybody is on the wagon of global warming, less snow.''
But Bob Pannuto, a meteorologist whose relatively simple snow forecast model is renowned in the region, isn't along for the ride.
Rather, the Marshfield resident predicts that the Boston area will get more than the annual average of 42 inches of snow, basing his call on his simple premise that a cold fall usually leads to a snowy winter. The South Shore averages about 10 inches less than the city, Pannuto said.
Although his model has an impressive track record, he has been around New England and the weather world long enough to know that Mother Nature doesn't always cooperate.
``This (model) has been right since the winter of 2000, so I think I'm due for a fall,'' Pannuto said, chuckling.
His predictions grew out of a paper he published in the National Weather Digest in 1978. Now his model is ``the only useful predictor'' for Boston's snowfall, said Patriot Ledger meteorologist Rob Gilman.
The climatology- and statistics-based model bases its forecast on fall temperatures. This year, the average temperature in October was 5.1 degrees higher than normal, while the November average was 1.2 degrees below the norm. Because Pannuto gives greater weight to the later temperatures, he concluded that there is a 59 percent chance that the area will get above-average snowfall this winter.
``If you have a cold trend that is starting'' -- a concept called ``persistent climatology'' -- ``then you're more likely to get above-average snowfall,'' said Todd Gross, a former WHDH-TV weather chief who now forecasts for Worcester radio station WCRN and a TV station in Salt Lake City, among other places. Some local forecasters are like the Farmer's Almanac in not predicting a big snowfall figure.
Citing October's record warmth, Gilman said he expects ``near- to below-average snowfall,'' or about 40 inches.
In line with Pannuto, Gross wrote on his blog, toddgross.com, that he is ``calling for near- to slightly above-normal snowfall this upcoming season.''
The first such forecast made by Pannuto, who worked for the National Weather Service in Taunton from 1971 to 1999, was not nearly as prescient as his last eight predictions.
Temperatures in the fall of 1977 were warmer than usual, so Pannuto predicted below-average snowfall. Then came the Blizzard of '78.
``That was a big bust,'' he said.
Still, Pannuto was correct in 21 of the next 29 years.
``Knowing these odds, don't be unprepared for winter,'' he said, ``but meanwhile, I'll be down in Florida.''
Yes, it's true: While Pannuto has become known for his snowfall predictions, he heads south to avoid snow.
Every January, he teaches an earth sciences course at Edison College in Fort Myers, Fla. Like many snowbirds, he'll return north. Next summer he'll teach meteorology and climatology at Curry College in Milton.
Loading...
3:2430th Anniversary of Blizzard of '78by wish18,292 views
Featured Video
Link to this comment:
All Comments (0)