Critical Thinking Part 5: The Gambler's Fallacy

Part 5 of the TechNyou critical thinking resource.

The resource covers basic logic and faulty arguments, developing student's critical thinking skills.

Suitable for year 8-10, focused on science issues, the module can be adapted to suit classroom plans.

The resource is found here:
https://education.technyou.edu.au/critical-thinking

Transcript can be found here:
http://technyou.edu.au/fun-stuff/videos/video-transcripts/

Continued in Part 6:
Critical Thinking Part 6: A precautionary tale
http://youtu.be/vjaqM4yd_RA

Animated and directed by James Hutson, Bridge8.
Written by Mike Mcrae and James Hutson

Category:

Science & Technology

Tags:

• gambler's fallacy
• luck
• pattern
• pattern recognition
• gambling
• medicine
• clinical trails
• testing
• science
• scientific process
• critical thinking
• critical
• probability
• Math
• Mathematics
• Technology
• Educational
• education
• non sequitur
• Critical Thinking
• thinking
• think
• Thought
• Mind
• Brain
• logic
• logical
• aristotle
• premise
• fallacy
• Debate
• Reason
• philosophy
• philosopher
• broken
• resource
• teacher
• student
• Lesson
• School
• Lessons
• Learn
• Teachers
• Students
• Free
• Tutorial
• Learning
• Plans

[d4m4s74]

I had a Reese's Peanut Butter cup once, and got a throat infection the next day. never ate them again, even though I liked it.

Same fallacy I think.

[brenaeasterday]

I just watched that episode. The moving wall. Spooky. :P

[brenaeasterday]

@MrNoosphere lol

[MrNoosphere]

@brenaeasterday Oh no, Dave's syndrome.

[MrNoosphere]

@MrBoo88 "I can't decide, maybe I should flip a coin, hope it explodes and kills me" - Black Books. (can't say it couldn't happen either).

[ZaifoTube]

this actually says that science gives us results that are most likely correct!

[MrBoo88]

Coins can land on their side.

[IZEASGT]

@Neoplantski Probability doesn't work that way. With 100 perfect coin flips, the odds of it being EXACTLY a 50/50 split is about 8%, assuming my math is right. I think the formula is (n choose n/2)/(2^n), n being 100. 40 heads and 60 tails is about 1%, and the probability of it being BETWEEN 60/40 and 40/60 is about 96.5%.

The trick is that as n grows arbitrarily large, the standard deviation, as a FRACTION of n, becomes arbitrarily small.

[joshhunsaker]

your studio stole an audio sample in the pacman game for this video... whoops

[rg0057]

0:40 "just aren't there"... all the patterns we see are constructed, and are real, in our minds. What you mean is that only some of them tell us something useful about the world.

0:45 "50%". You are assuming an ideal coin, and ideal coin flipper, which you did not state. You need to factor in the chances that the coin and/or flipper may be biased, and by how much, and for what reason.