Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex

http://www.ted.com Economics writer Tim Harford studies complex systems -- and finds a surprising link among the successful ones: they were built through trial and error. In this sparkling talk from TEDGlobal 2011, he asks us to embrace our randomness and start making better mistakes.

TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes. Featured speakers have included Al Gore on climate change, Philippe Starck on design, Jill Bolte Taylor on observing her own stroke, Nicholas Negroponte on One Laptop per Child, Jane Goodall on chimpanzees, Bill Gates on malaria and mosquitoes, Pattie Maes on the "Sixth Sense" wearable tech, and "Lost" producer JJ Abrams on the allure of mystery. TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design, and TEDTalks cover these topics as well as science, business, development and the arts. Closed captions and translated subtitles in a variety of languages are now available on TED.com, at http://www.ted.com/translate.

Category:

Science & Technology

Tags:

• TED
• TEDTalks
• TEDGlobal
• TIm Harford
• God complex
• trial and error
• mistakes
• randomness
• complexity

[Ko252]

Damn. This was eye-opening. I have a serious GOD-complex.

[jonescaleb12]

@derek24hudson Correction: "close minded" people use exactly the same tactics. As a Christian I absolutely LOVED this as well as many other TED talks. The God complex is easy to get sucked into. You reach a certain level of understanding on something and decide that is enough and you don't need anymore information. It happens to religious people and atheists alike. It is part of the human condition. The moment you close down to new information (no matter the source) you have the God complex.

[wildicepick]

I have a god complex I think, I am 18... and due to this video, I WILL change! Thank you! 

[jonescaleb12]

@livedandletdie This has nothing to do with religion or the concept of deity. In the phrase "God Complex", the term "god" refers to us thinking we're infallible, not some deity.

[livedandletdie]

@jonescaleb12 except that being atheist you aren't able to have a God complex cause you don't believe in a God. LOL So let's call it "You are crazy complex" instead.

[mikeating42]

One of the best TEDtalks I've seen. Amazing argument, incomparable appeal to the audience, and a phenomenal speaker. Well done Hartford.

[DSBrekus]

@DSBrekus Lastly, I'm not sure what you mean by dispense with communicators? Does being an artist make one a great communicator? Are all communicators artists?

Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to say that art is entirely inconsequential, art effects people like any form of entertainment. But I think it's important to accept that it is just entertainment, can it have messages in it? Sure, like any form of entertainment. But those messages can and do exist without art to back them up.

[DSBrekus]

@DSBrekus Cont'd But there are right and wrong answers to societal problems and the experimenters aren't gonna do trials on strange ideas out of a desire to express themselves. Basically what I'm trying to say is that there's a big difference between an artist and a scientist, art is an unsolvable problem and artists do it from an emotional drive, scientists can solve real problems and do it out of the desire to solve them and the humility to accept that only testing can provide real evidence.

[DSBrekus]

@NevilleRhysBarnes I can see that my comment was a bit jumbled so I'll try to clarify. Yes artists do try random things and what sells sells, so you can see some of the trial and error/evolution in art. But the reason they try random things is 1. there's no societal risk for failure and 2. they are simply driven to express themselves in some odd form and have intuition that it will be good. Also, art IS subjective, tastes change over time so there will never be a "right" kind of art.

[NevilleRhysBarnes]

@DSBrekus Isn't the essence of Tim Hartford's argument precisely that you DON'T really know what's right or wrong for societal problems--you just think you do, and that's the God complex.

You dismiss the arts as subjective and inconsequential, but if you dispense with communicators then you simply don't have a civilisation.

The arts are as cutthroat, competitive and harshly-judged as almost any human endeavour. The "right answer" is the same as in all other spheres: it is what works.