Re: The Monty Hall Paradox

What?!!!! Please join my weekly poker game. We're in need of another easy out.

This is so simple. I think the poor guy donig the video may have overthought it completely.

You still have to stick with what you did.

Even if you changed it and took back your ace and happened to pair it up, ONE PAIR is virtually never going to be the best hand out of 8 players in the game.

Yes, you'll miss the flush almost every time but it's IRRELEVANT. You still have to try. The flush is your only chance to WIN against this number of opponents.

SHUT UP IDIOT!

Poker has nothing to do with strength of the hand.

This it totally wrong, either you pick the right one or not, chances have NOTHING to do with it. This shows what rubbish quantum physics is.

Sorry, my original math was off. You have a 44% chance of improving, a 48% chance of weakening, and a 6% chance of staying the same. These numbers were all rounded down, so may be off by a percentage point each.

To answer the "do you change your mind" question: no. If you discard the ace and then you should recant (since you now have a 75% chance of weakening your hand by discarding it). If you discarded the 2 then, you have actually got a better chance (30%, was 25%) of improving your hand now by staying with your original discard. Your chance of a flush has dropped to 5%.