Massive Protest & Rally in Bangkok, Thailand

The ultimatum will not be met, and tomorrow will see the ultimate game of who blinks first. Red shirts, sources said, would attempt to "provoke" the authorities but keep the aggression just below the level that could justify a crackdown. They will move around and surround some places, causing traffic chaos here and there and putting more and more pressure on the government. But they will do it in a way that if shots were fired or protesters were clubbed, state troops would be the ones looking like the bad guys.

The government's initial strategy was patience, patience and patience, and it was generally believed that the protest could not outlive the funding. Problem is, if the campaign is costing Bt30 million a day, as some have calculated, it's not much for Thaksin. A 10-day sit-in would just cost Bt300 million, or under 1 per cent of the assets his family is supposed to get back from the state.

Informed sources last night said the government could decide to go down the risky road of declaring a state of emergency to boost the military's power in controlling the situation. This could affect the overall outlook. After all, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has looked totally non-confrontational over the past few days, basically thanking the red shirts for their peaceful approach to date.

Another important factor is Thaksin's whereabouts. If he has really been expelled from Dubai, his desperation must have naturally grown. And if he really plans to settle down in Cambodia, like news reports suggested, there will be ramifications domestically as well as bilaterally.

In his brief phone-in to supporters yesterday, he ambiguously claimed he had to leave Dubai because the United Arab Emirates government was "annoyed" by whining from Bangkok. He said he was in Europe at the moment and hoped to have a longer phone-in today.

Red leaders claim, or hope, that the number of protesters will rise to 400,000 today, four times the government's estimate. That would be a big number, but not a government-toppling number. As long as the government keeps things under control, that is.

Government advantages, administration sources said, include the military's better preparations compared with during the Songkran turbulence almost a year ago. But more crucial is the fact that the red shirts can't afford to run riot without justification this time. A repeat of the Songkran madness and they'd lose. This has led to all kinds of rumours, an outstanding one involving "fake red shirts" wreaking havoc to instigate bloodshed or provoke a crackdown.

THAILAND THAI GOVERNMENT PROTEST MONEY THAKSIN TAKSIN BANGKOK REDSHIRT LEADER DUBAI UAE CBC AFP PBS CNN CTV REUTERS 2010 MARCH RIOT BBC RED SHIRT CNA UPDATE LIVE RALLY BANGKOK SHIRTS CORRUPTION 2009 APRIL CRISIS MOB URGENT FIELD REPORT PROTESTER

Category:

News & Politics

Tags:

• THAILAND
• THAI
• GOVERNMENT
• PROTEST
• MONEY
• THAKSIN
• TAKSIN
• BANGKOK
• REDSHIRT
• LEADER
• DUBAI
• UAE
• CBC
• AFP
• PBS
• CNN
• CTV
• REUTERS
• 2010
• MARCH
• RIOT
• BBC
• RED
• SHIRT
• CNA
• UPDATE
• LIVE
• RALLY
• SHIRTS
• CORRUPTION
• 2009
• APRIL
• CRISIS
• MOB
• URGENT
• FIELD
• REPORT
• PROTESTER