What do you think you're thinking when you think? (why experts are wrong)

If like me, you're following current affairs, politics, economics, global warming, science, medicine, space exploration, etc. You must have heard hundreds of predictions made by notable experts, analysts and university professors that in retrospect don't even pass the laughing test.

Now, this could be a laughing matter, you know when you hear some of the predictions made only a few years back. But when you think about it, it's not only us who listen to these people and take them seriously. But our politicians and policy makers rely on them too.

Now, instead of exposing those so called experts, the cognitive illusions that drive them, their illusion of validity which makes them over confidant and their 'expert intuition' which we seem to accept as some sort of authority I want to explain why you should be very cautious when you listen to your own assessments and judgment.

To do that I've based my video on a lecture by Daniel Kahneman - an Israeli-American psychologist and Nobel laureate, notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, behavioral economics and hedonic psychology.

Kahneman and other researchers have made the fields of decision making a hot-bed of academic controversy while discussing issues such as the cognitive illusions of experts, the illusion of validity, personal biases in decision making and adjacent topics.

Apart from modern decision making models, some provided by Kahneman himself I will also touch briefly the usage of Game Theory mathematical models in geo-political assessments (influenced by work by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita) and the popular use of Quants (Quantitative Analysts) in modern economy models - that look nice, but seam to disregard the emergent non-linearity of market economy.

For further investigation:

Illusion of validity
http://illusion-of-validity.behaviouralfinance.net/

Cognitive illusions
http://www.cognitivepsychologyarena.com/cognitive-illusions-9781841693514

Cognitive and personal biases in decision making
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_making#Cognitive_and_personal_biases

Quants (Quantitative Analysts)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_analyst

Game theory Rational Agent
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_agent

Daniel Kahneman
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman

Gary A. Klein
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_A._Klein

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Bueno_de_Mesquita

Category:

Education

Tags:

• expert
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• validity
• Game
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• Analysts
• Cognitive
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• personal
• biases
• in
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• risk
• management
• predictions
• economy
• models
• mathematical
• Bruce
• Bueno
• de
• Mesquita
• Daniel
• Kahneman
• joniversity

[arisbananatwins]

my charming "expert" scholarly gentleman!! im very glad i get to sit with you in real life to discuss all of this! speaking of which... if your in tel aviv this week, give me a call, so we can ketchup over an expertly made sabeech!

(you know who this is right?) ;))

[Joniversity]

@arisbananatwins Well it's about time you'd participate. I've heard you got yourself a prime candidate for procreation...

Anyways, Tel Aviv is way too sofisto-urban for me. I say the slums of Netanya make a better setting... It's easier to feel smarter here :-)

[mozlitania]

@Joniversity Did anyone said something bad about Netanya? Hey, I live there! And it`s a beatiful touristic town. Anyway, nice examples. Very similar to the ones that Prof. Kahneman gives at his lectures about intuition.

[Joniversity]

@mozlitania I live in Netanya too... And yes this vid was based on a large extent on Kahneman's presentation. i also took a few samples from there. The guy is a genius.

[MrGregglesC]

Someone shut this cunt up.

[MiniarHalfshasa]

No,.. Time does not make you an expert. 

[arisbananatwins]

@Joniversity lol...ASHKARA! next time im there, ill drop you a line.. ..and no prime candidate quite yet... still seeing resumes. though many applicants are definatley worthy of short internships. ;))

[REVOLUZIONIST]

@Joniversity

Yes, just another mess.

[SomethingSea1]

@Joniversity U is awesomz ;-)