Election 2008 in 30 Seconds! (Old Prediction)

This is my prediction of the electoral vote for the 2008 United States presidential election. John McCain will win with 274 electoral votes vs. Obama with 264 electoral votes.

I want Obama to win, but I dont allow emotions to cloud my reasoning.

In October of 2004, my electoral prediction for the 2004 Presidential Election (like the one seen here) was 100% correct, predicting that Bush would win with 286 electoral votes.

My 2004 prediction, like my 2008 prediction, was not in harmony with the polls at the time. However, I was not swayed by meaningless numbers or political punditry most of which predicted a Kerry victory.

Some of you have expressed scorn for my prediction, stating that Obama is way ahead in the polls. Let me say something about polls.

#1. They convey attitudes which do not necessarily predict behavior (voting).

#2. Polls change with the weather. Even if Obama is way ahead TODAY, that doesnt he will be way ahead on ELECTION DAY.

#3. About 1 in 5 voters make up their minds in the last four weeks before Election Day. 1 in 9 voters do not make up their mind until the last week before Election Day. The undecided demographic is very significant and tends to lean conservative, when it comes to actually casting a ballot.

#4. US Presidential Elections are not won by popular opinion; they are won with electoral votes. Even if Obama got 70% of the popular vote, he could still lose the election (in theory).

#5. The Bradley Effect. It gives non-white candidates inflated poll numbers.

I am so confident about my prediction for the 2008 election that I will publicly apologize if it turns out to be inaccurate. Please exercise your 1st Amendment right and leave a comment!

Category:

News & Politics

Tags:

• Election
• 2008
• vote
• electoral
• prediction
• red
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• United
• States
• politics
• Obama
• McCain
• Democrat
• Republican
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• november
• biden
• palin
• polls

[PanDeism]

Yeah, you picked like seven states and a district in Nebraska wrong.... all faith in the Republicans is lost, maybe forever....

[electionologist]

The Bush Administration has devastated the image of the Republican Party beyond the point of no return--at least for a decade.

It will take many years for Republicans to regain the trust of Americans. Two rigged elections and a terrorist attack were barely enough to keep Republicans in power over the last 8 years. That says a lot about the desperation of the Republican Party in an era where college education is becoming mainstream. Corrupt politicians fear educated citizens like they fear hell.

[rakrobn]

Sorry dumbass you were COMPLETELY WRONG. McCain will NOT be the 44th President of the United States. You should work for Fox Noise. HA HA HA HA.

[electionologist]

Yes. This prediction turned out to be very far from the final outcome, not at all to my surprise. In fact, I posted a video two weeks before the election predicting an Obama victory.

[kefkaROX]

STUPID. You just took Gore's loss in 2000 and added New Hampshire to his column.

[AtomikNY]

You were right on the nose!

Except Nevada, Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, which all voted for the superior candidate!

Yes we did! Thank you, all my fellow Obama voters and volunteers!

[kell4809]

Ha Ha! Obama 2012

[freakylocz14]

@electionologist 2010 says hi.

[zogb9166]

@electionologist I would put the failure of republicans more on congress rather than just George Bush. The blame lies on no single person. The Republican party is failing us the most NOW while under This administration. Oh, and Sarah Palin. I say bring back Ronald Regan from the dead.

[WilliamHCarney]

I still want Jesse Ventura as president because he's very direct like me and does not care what no one thinks. I want Ron Paul as Federal Reserve Chairman.

[WilliamHCarney]

When Obama came into office, the CBO ready told Obama he would have to borrow 9 milliondollars to keep us afloat. That was just the start.

[WilliamHCarney]

Obama is still doing slightly above average. A 73% out of 100%. For what he walked into, the cry baby Conservatives purposely holding up progress, plus working off Bush's budget until October 09. The problem with spoiled America is that they wanted a quick fix. Are you fucking serious?

[whiteant88]

You're an idiot.



[dancthegr]

wrong

I guess that you expect ohio is going to vote turkeys next election

[phantomsuccour]

@electionologist well seeing you made the prediction a month before, i can understand why you were a bit off.

[freakylocz14]

@electionologist At least for a decade? November 2, 2010 says hi!