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Moore Up North - Scott McAdams part 1 of 4

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Uploaded by on Oct 9, 2010

Shannyn is joined by Alaska election guru Tom Begich to discuss the math of the US Senate race. Tom gives us the history of write in candidates in Alaska, and shows why Lisa Murkowski can't win.

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  • You guys were just telling the story that you wanted to hear.

  • The math in this is absolutely atrocious. Seriously, I don't see how this can be anything other than a deliberate attempt to mislead. Tom, I have to say, I have lost all respect for you as a political strategist when you write on a chalkboard for all to see that 35% of 316,000 is 115,000, and that 31% of 316,000 is 110,000.

    Your brother, Sen. Mark Begich, wrote an editorial in the ADN recently, also using inaccurate voter turnout numbers AFTER this election. It makes both of you look foolish.

  • If you had really used a calculator you would see that:

    35% of 316,000 is actually 110,600,

    31% of 316,000 is actually 97,960 (a full 12,040 off, which means your number was off by about 11%, it's hard to guess that poorly.)

    and... 316,000 out of 494876 registered voters is 63.85%. The turnout in AK for the 2008 presidential election was only 66%, what made you think that this midterm election would get that close in turnout? It ended up being 52%. Off by another 11+%.. I'm sensing a pattern.

  • hes so wrong. AK aint normal.

  • Let's hope your are accurate.

  • So Tom, the fundraising numbers you mentioned at the end, for Lisa and Miller, you indicated that was money raised in the last 30-40 days. You didn't give a timeline on Scott. Was that &720K also in the last 30-40 days, or was that his total take??

  • Voter Review 102

  • @TiaMalas Fair enough Tia is correct. Improbability, not impossibility. Good catch.

    Tom Begich

  • As I watched this video I was reminded how cool the intro is. I like that I can fully identify all of the images. Would be a good contest to stir up some interest.

    Interesting to hear from Tom Begich. He makes a great Johnny Indepth. However, in the interest of truth in advertising, Lisa's chances are a mathematical

    IMPROBABILITY, not impossible as stated. Could still make history. Just say'n

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